Gazprom has reserved almost the entire capacity of the Polish section of the pipeline Yamal—Europe gas next year against the expected reduction of gas transit through Ukraine and the uncertain timing of completion of the “Nord stream-2”. The total volume of flow can reach 25.7 billion cubic meters, the rate will be $7 for pumping 1 thousand cubic meters of gas. According to experts, the route in the current environment remains the most cost-effective for “Gazprom” for deliveries to Germany.Polish gas operator Gaz System announced results of the annual (1 Oct 2020 1 Oct 2021) auction for access to capacities of the local section of the gas pipeline Yamal—Europe, passing through Russia, Belarus, Poland and Germany.Selected whole capacity offered at auction (25.7 billion cubic meters), from the data operator. The remaining 10% of capacity are likely to be distributed under the short-term booking. The winner of auction the operator will not reveal, but on logon, on the part of Belarus in paragraph Kondratki the only gas supplier is Gazprom. In “Gazprom-export”, “b” is not provided in the operational review.The auction system replaced the 25-year contract for gas transit through Poland (expired on 16 may), which Moscow and Warsaw did not renew. From may 17 to July 1 auctions for access to the pipe held for a period of from one day to one month.The reservation of capacity occurs in the system “entrance-exit”. Rate at the inlet to the point of Kondratki to the border of Poland and Belarus is about $3.5 per 1 thousand cubic meters at the current rate, the exit fee at the point Mallnow on the border of Poland and Germany in the outcome of the auction is not reflected. As a rule, the rate of output is comparable with the rate of input.Until 2022 between Russia and Poland continues to operate a long-term contract for the supply of up to 10.2 billion cubic meters of gas per year. But Poland in recent years suggests the need to diversify supplies and actively buys LNG from Qatar and the United States: from 2016, the country imported 11 billion cubic meters of LNG, its import share of Poland in 2019 amounted to 23%. Another source of imports for Poland — a virtual reversal of Germany, also by 2022 it is planned to launch gas pipeline Baltic Pipe capacity of up to 8 billion cubic meters per year from Norway.But at the same time in 2021 falls and the agreed amount of Russian transit through Ukraine from the current 65 billion cubic meters to 40 billion cubic meters. The prospects for launch in the period of the pipeline “Nord stream-2” which, according to the statements of Russian officials, should earn at the end of this or early 2021, remain evident.Maria Belova from Vygon Consulting notes that the route of the Yamal—Europe from the point of view of the distance to optimal gas supply Polish and German consumers. In addition, the Russian whom��AANII owns 48% in the Polish section of the pipe through the Europolgaz. The route historically high level of load, which on average last 10 years was 97%. In addition, adds the analyst, the current reservation of capacity for the next gas year in 1,3 times reduces the rate of pumping (compared to those who had paid the company from June to July when booking a month in advance). According to Ms. Belova, amid prospects of lower pumping through Ukraine’s long-term booking the maximum capacity of Yamal—Europe is dictated primarily by economic considerations.Tatiana Woodpecker
