a France faces serious consequences of the pandemic COVID-19 — the economic crisis and the wave of unemployment. In conjunction with the growth of dissent and failures in foreign policy this leads to a reduction of the rating of the President of Emmanuel Macron, and the European press openly declares that he is unlikely to get re-elected. Makron in a hurry trying to solve the accumulated problems, however, before the next presidential election, he still has a not much time.
EU leaders cannot come to an agreement on the establishment of a crisis Fund to support the economy enterprises seriously affected due to the restrictive measures introduced to combat pandemic coronavirus COVID-19. The EU summit had been delayed and the lack of consensus in negotiations puts the issue of formation of long-term budget for the 2021-2027 years.
The main ideologists of creation of the anti-crisis Fund were Germany and France, they proposed to allocate €500 billion for support to affected States. Initiative differs somewhat new for the EU approach — the Fund is to provide countries budgetary subsidies, rather than loans. Don’t agree with that at least Austria and the Netherlands. In their opinion, it is not necessary to increase the budget of the EU and build a pan-European debt.
the Situation around the anti-crisis Fund has positions of Emmanuel Macron as the formation of the German-French plan for the recovery of the European economy can be written in a number of personal victories of President of the Republic.
If approved the new anti-crisis Fund along with the EU budget is still unknown. The talks between the leaders of the countries-members of the Association continued for several days, and any progress is still not visible.
Viral impact
The desire of a French President to run for a second presidential term is quite obvious, at least it is necessary to the Macron for the full implementation of all the planned reforms. However, the pandemic confused card to the President, putting his reelection at risk. France is on the verge of a wave of layoffs and closure of companies.
As he said himself macron, ahead of the French expect a very difficult few months — the authorities will do everything possible to minimize the damage, but in recent years the country has again recorded growth in the number of cases that may indicate the possibility of a second wave of the epidemic.
“We are doing everything in order to avoid a new wave and a differentiated approach, if it happens. And I say this for all of our citizens, we are participants in the fight against the virus. Will there be a second wave, depends on us,” said the President.
New wave is likely to completely kill the main economic success of Macron President, writes Politico.
Before the pandemic, the French leader could boast of low unemployment, economic growththat and the not-too-high national debt. COVID-19 struck on all three indicators at the same time, the Central Bank of France expects the unemployment rate to 11% yoy compared to 7.8% before the pandemic, GDP in the second quarter fell 17 percent, public debt is growing rapidly and it is predicted to exceed the figure of 120% of GDP.
The latter index significantly narrows the room for maneuver for the government of France, although, in fact, not a major problem. In conjunction with the crisis in the industrial sector, tourism and other areas return to pre-crisis levels before the presidential election in 2022, rather, will be perceived as a miracle.
And macron, aware of the danger of the current situation for his re-election, the head of the Center for French studies at the RAS Institute of Europe Yury Rubinsky.
“Macron has admitted that he failed to reconcile the French — the division of society there, and he aggravated coronavirus. Moreover, it sometimes takes on the character of hatred. He tries to find such a program and the composition of the government, which would increase his chances for the presidency after 2022”, — the expert said in a conversation with “Газетой.Ru”.
The situation is complicated by the fact that the ratings Rules leave much to be desired. Against the closure of the European countries from each other in the spring, the President of France received its fair share of people love that experts often call the “cohesion effect” — in a crisis situation the majority of the French supported the President, for the first time in three years, his rating has reached 51%.
However, as soon as the pandemic in France began to wane, the indicators support the Makron came down. The June survey by BVA, the President is supported by only 38% of the French.
Interestingly, 54% of respondents expressed support for the former Prime Minister of France Edouard Philippe.
a Threat to re-election
According to Bloomberg, the strengthening of the position of the head of the government was one of the reasons for his resignation and return to office of mayor of Le Havre — place of the town Governor he received the results of the second round of municipal elections in France.
“Makron Philip parted on good terms, that is, he was given all the compliments for the results at the head of the government. The gap between them can not be traced. However, Republicans hope to use his figure in the upcoming presidential elections, but today it is rather doubtful,” — said Yuri Rubinsky.
In France there is a popular opinion that Phillip could take part in elections in 2027, the expert said, however, now the scenario of the gap between the former Prime Minister and President of the looms.
The last election campaign on the municipal level was not in favor of the presidential party “go Republic!” and prodhave demonstrirovalsya strengthening of the left party “Europe — Ecology — Green and socialists, they received control over the largest cities of the Republic.
the results of the elections were yet another negative factor for the Macron, which made a bid for right-wing forces in the face of Republicans.
On explicit request of the voters to protect the environment and strengthen the social component of the the President replied with a loud promise of a change of course.
Triggered by the departure of Philip, the change of government “bias to the left” has not demonstrated — most Ministers are former or current members of the Republican party that some are not correlated with the desire of the Makron face to the voter.
“Green major breakthrough in the municipal elections was a surprise factor, they won the majority in the country’s major cities — Marseille, Lyon, Bordeaux, Strasbourg, where three years ago the most successful showed the ruling party. In fact, the election demonstrated quite pale rooting “Go Republic!” on the ground. But any threat candidates on the left for Makron no green yet have a weak party structure at the national level,” said Rubinsky.
From the point of view of observers of Politico don’t forget about the strong protest movements in France, which are likely to aktiviziruyutsya on the background of steady deterioration of the situation in the country. During his presidency, macron already faced with the strict demonstrations of the movement “yellow jackets” and a rally of various trade unions against the pension reform.
According to the most negative forecasts, the number of unemployed in France may increase by 1 million people, according to the journalists, it could lead to the outbreak of protest already for next winter — a common problem in the economy will only cause riots.
Main opponents
Formally this situation might play in favor of the opponent of the Macron in the last presidential election, the leader of “National front” marine Le Pen. Opponent of the President can use the protests of the French are against it, although during a pandemic, to do this it failed.
Possible repetition of the scenario of the previous elections — the macron against Le pen — the is the best option for the President and his rival, said Yuri Rubinsky.
“The voters wanted, they got tired of this and would like something new, but is a strong candidate to the right or left no.
Besides, Le Pen has failed to ride the wave of discontent of the French, although the results of France against the pandemic really was worse than the same in Germany. Macron sees these problems and is trying to implement significant funds to support the health system. However, you will have time ��to justify politically and to give effect to 2022 is an open question,” — said the expert.
According to the July survey by Harris Interactive for the Makron ready to vote 28% of the respondents, Le Pen support 25% of respondents.
However, before the election is still two years, and during that time we can expect the appearance of the candidate at least from the party “Europe — Ecology — Green, considering her overall success at the local ballot and the positive results of last year’s elections to the European Parliament.
