What will the world after the pandemic – more safe or – on the contrary – bearing more global risks. Whether threatens the planet repetition of the cold war or the emergence of new “hot spots”. Why is the coronavirus has not become the “common enemy” against which would unite efforts of all world community. We were told about this by the leading experts from Russia and the United States.
At the site of the Valdai club in online mode with participation of Deputy Minister of foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Ryabkov was presented a special report “do Not run wild in the “crumbling world””. It contains predictions about the future of our world after a pandemic, how will change the global agenda, what future for the multilateral alliances.
We asked prominent representatives of expert community took part in the discussion of the report.
1) Why the pandemic has not become a window of opportunity for joining efforts of the international community in the fight against such a “universal enemy” as coronavirus and on the contrary became a factor, making a new division among States?
2) What are the pain points now arise in the system of international relations on the background of coronavirus crisis?
Fyodor Lukyanov, chief editor of the magazine “Russia in global politics”, the scientific Director of the International discussion club “Valdai”:
“1) the Enemy, of course, “universal”, given that the virus is walking around the world – but this type of disaster special. Objectively, by their nature, they do not provide a join, and the maximum separation. Otherwise, pandemic or epidemic, than insulation, can not be. So at least at this stage, separation is absolutely unavoidable.
Then, in theory, the development of a vaccine, the search for drugs is a common task. And she, apparently, will be resolved – despite some excesses, when countries begin to try each other something to explore. If the vaccine and medicines will be developed, I believe they will become common property. But that does not mean the spread of the cooperation breadth.
All trends in world politics prior to the beginning of the season the quarantines have not gone away. Moreover, the pandemic has exacerbated them. All that we are seeing a disconnect, focus on their own interests, very distinct confrontation between the United States and China, began long before the coronavirus. He only served as a catalyst. And no reason to expect qualitative changes in connection with this event was not. And oddly enough if they had to wait.
2) the Most painful point – the transition of confrontation between the US and China to another level. She begins to approach the level of a full-fledged cold war model of conflict between the USSR and the USA. A completely different structure��RA and a different character, because the situation is hardly comparable, but in spirit, acuity mutual rejection this confrontation similar to what occurred in the second half of the twentieth century.
this leaves a huge number of all sorts of consequences. In particular, the need for many countries to somehow position itself in this new confrontation.
Naturally, the participants of the confrontation will seek to enlist the support of the maximum number of countries to attract them to his side – and thus even more to reproduce the model for the second half of the twentieth century. The rest of the state – large, medium, small – on the contrary, are interested to the maximum extent possible to avoid fit in a divided world on any side. So will try to maneuver. What will succeed is unclear, but this rivalry is turning into structural substantiation of world politics in the coming years.”
Thomas Graham, expert of the Valdai club, an honorary fellow at the Council on foreign relations (new York):
“1) Pandemic Covid-19 broke out in times of great change, uncertainty, diversity and distrust in global Affairs. The increased competition of the great powers have undermined the effectiveness of international organizations, including the United Nations in General and the Security Council in particular.
Multilateral cooperation in addressing global challenges such as climate change, international terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction has already been interrupted, as countries focus on their internal problems and the big powers seek to gain an advantage over their rivals.
moreover, despite the fact that the pandemic is a global problem, the reality is that its impact varies considerably from country to country.
Based on government policy, resource and social solidarity, some countries doing much better than others. This creates an obstacle for more successful countries in the Association of resources with more disorganized societies in the fight against the pandemic.
Finally, the virus has spread so quickly in a time of great uncertainty about its impact that countries are reluctant to share with the affected countries informed the medicines and equipment that they might need for their own populations. All of these factors opposed the consolidation of the countries to counter common threats, and they continue to impede coordinated international response.
2) Coronavirus reiterated the primacy of the sovereign state in global Affairs. This is the only legal entity that has sufficient legitimacy to organize ��cvetnye actions and to demand sacrifices from his people. And this is the entity to which people turn for information and support.
But the superiority of the sovereign nation States exist in an increasingly interconnected world in which global problems require effective international cooperation.
in Short, the problem is that we live in a world of transnational processes, which functions on the basis of different normative documents, specific to each country.
holding the exercise of national sovereignty and taming of national self-interest to the limits that effectively cooperate in the fight against common threats is one of the main tasks of this period”.
