we Look at the right Numbers, and we take the right measures?

the questions were raised during the time of the Corona-pandemic again and again. Finally, the pandemic is to this extent a Situation, we do not know so far. Measures need to be constantly reconsidered, strategies are questioned. The have recently done six experts from various disciplines in your “thesis paper on the pandemic of Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19”.

you have set in your 26-page-long paper three areas of focus, to show you facts and problems:

  • epidemiology
  • further development of prevention measures and
  • social and political consequences

the six authors of the paper

  • Matthias Schrappe of the University of Cologne, former Vice-Chairman of the. Chairman of the expert Council of health.
  • Hedwig François-Kettner, care Manager and consultant, former. Chairman of the action Alliance patient safety in Berlin
  • Matthias Gruhl, doctor of Public health, Hamburg/Bremen
  • Franz Knieps, a lawyer and the Executive Board of the Association of company health insurance funds
  • Holger Pfaff, University of Cologne, center for health services research, former. Chairman of the expert Advisory Board of the innovation Fund, and
  • Gerd Glaeske Universität Bremen, SOCIUM Public Health, former. To criticize a member of the expert Council of health

the experts of medicine, sociology, health, Law, and nursing Sciences in the current approach so much-also the current approach of the Federal government. First and foremost, you write that your post was a constructive thought. They wanted to “support the decisions of the next few weeks.”

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1. Epidemiology

The authors criticize, among other things, that at the present time, no reliable statements could be made to currently Diseased, the newly occurring cases. Finally, there is only event-related Tests, and a maximum of as many as Tests are available. It lacks, however, systematic testing with at least 10,000 persons, in which randomly selected people were to be tested. This, according to the authors, demand will have to be prioritized.

the total number of Tests is not fully known. Therefore, it is not to speak also makes sense from a doubling time (the time in which the number of cases doubled) and to make far-reaching actions dependent on, the authors explain.

to This end, random Sampling of the total population. This would also help to provide meaningful mortality rates, i.e. the proportion of Infected who die of the disease, name it. The authors assume that the currently reported mortality rates are resorted to high.


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in addition, the authors argue, should not be added to the newly diagnosed cases to cases that are already recovered. Rather, healthy patients who have survived the disease would have to be deducted. “The cumulative representation of the daily new cases diagnosed, the impression of a catastrophic rise “, criticize the experts.

2. Prevention strategies

The scientists point out in their statements that a vaccination will only be available in 2021. Social Distancing is seen as a method whose effectiveness is limited and leads to collateral damage. She was also a paradox, because “is the more effective (Social Distancing), the higher the risk of a ‘second wave'” , write the authors. Finally, it could be achieved, if the measure was effective, there is no immunity in large numbers in the population, as would be necessary to stop the spread of the pathogen.

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distancing measures should therefore be supplemented and replaced. The authors propose to focus on measures that are restricted to risk groups, namely people

  • high age
  • diseases
  • in institutions such as nursing homes or hospitals
  • and to local clusters stay as they are encountered, for example in Würzburg or Wolfsburg.

are you of the opinion that it was not “to understand why children and young people below this age are not able to move freely, at least as long as you are in contact with older people or those with predispositions. This applies all the more as this group will be infected in the course of the epidemic, in all probability, in every case,” but not, or only rarely am prone.

3. Socio-political implications

if a partial Shutdown could in the beginning help in a pandemic Situation, argue the authors, take from him the danger, to reinforce social inequality. Democratic principles should not be playing, but also for the health and civil rights, experts. You demand that in addition to scientific and diagnostic findings must also be other disciplines, such as medical care, economic and sociological disciplines involved, in order to tackle the pandemic.

the authors of the thesis paper a go on very many aspects that already intense and contrary discussed to. As was explained, for example, recently the President of the German society for infectiology, that the prevalence of younger age groups is a dangerous mistake . Also, it is controversial whether the currently reported mortality rate is too high or too low – quite apart from the fact that it fails from country to country and Region to Region due to the lack of data in the current Situation.


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