The ban on new petrol, diesel and hybrid cars from 2035 is causing heated debates in the automotive industry. Meanwhile, the market share of e-cars is growing more slowly than it would have to for the EU plans. However, one factor must not be overlooked.
From the year 2035, only cars that no longer produce emissions are to be registered in the EU – although Brussels only refers to the direct emissions at the tailpipe and not to the complete climate and pollutant balance. As soon as the member states agree to the ban decided by the EU Parliament, the clock will start ticking for all new cars with internal combustion engines.
The auto industry is divided. VW and Daimler, who want to electrify their fleets as quickly as possible, welcome the ban. The industry now has planning security. Other manufacturers, the ADAC and various industry associations, on the other hand, scoff at “bans on thinking” with which politicians put everything on one card. They warn of negative consequences such as a strong dependence on China for battery raw materials and various implementation problems with e-mobility in practice.
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Buyers are currently reluctant to buy electric cars after long three-digit growth rates. Instead of records for new registrations of electric vehicles, May even showed a slight decline. The Central Association of German Automotive Fabrics (ZDK) asked its members why. According to this, 43 percent of those interested in a purely battery-electric vehicle (BEV) ultimately decided against buying it; more than half bought a petrol or diesel engine instead. This is also due to the current ambiguities in the promotion of e-vehicles.
However, the registration figures are only meaningful to a limited extent, because due to supply and raw material bottlenecks, the aftermath of the corona measures and current consequences of the Ukraine war, far fewer cars can be delivered than were ordered. In principle, this affects all types of drive, but according to information from manufacturer circles, it should affect electric vehicles to a particularly large extent.
As the “Automobilwoche” writes, in the current year 2022, only every second customer ordering an electric vehicle will also have their car delivered: “Only a good half of the current customer orders for purely battery-electric vehicles (56 percent) and for plug-in hybrids (63 percent) are expected to be delivered this year. In the coming year 2023, it will probably be 40 percent of the ordered BEV and 32 percent of the ordered PHEV,” says the specialist magazine. From this it can be concluded that the number of registrations for electric cars should actually be around twice as high – and also in 2023, due to the delivery bottlenecks, the number of registered cars will not reflect real buyer behavior.
This should play a role in the discussion as to whether subsidies should be distributed at all for electromobility – which will in any case have no alternative from 2035 onwards. After all, the demand for the vehicles is obviously significantly greater than the supply. Above all, the funding for plug-in hybrid vehicles, which in reality often have a much worse emissions balance than economical petrol and diesel engines, is criticized.
