the Russian currency may drop to about 90 rubles per dollar by the end of 2020, from the baseline scenario economists of the Center for macroeconomic analysis and short-term forecasting (CMASF). In this scenario, the pandemic will continue until the third quarter. Pessimistic scenario in which the coronavirus “delayed” until the beginning of 2022, assumes a higher rate of 100 rubles per dollar.
the Baseline scenario suggests that the pandemic coronavirus will continue until the third quarter of 2020. This variant also allows a second wave of the pandemic with its attendant restrictions in Russia and in the world in the fourth quarter. In this scenario, the ruble will range from 87 to 91 rubles per dollar from the fourth quarter of this year to 2022-th.
They expect that in this scenario, the possible elements of a cyclic crisis in the global economy, and the transition in Russia to stimulate qualitative changes in the economy will be deferred to 2023.
In their view, the decline in GDP in the baseline scenario could reach 8-8,2%, and a fall of investment in fixed capital, in the region of 19%. For comparison: in the base case of the Central Bank GDP decline for the year is expected to be 4-6% and the new forecast of Ministry of economic development said that the decline in the economy is 5%, the decline in investment of 12%, and the dollar by the end of the year 75-76 rubles.
In the pessimistic scenario says, if the coronavirus “will be delayed” until the first quarter of 2022, there will be a structural crisis of the world economy with consistently low prices for hydrocarbons. Russia will continue the policy of macroeconomic stabilization.