the housing Market is experiencing the worst in modern history times. Why not just attract potential buyers to the developers. Some promise themselves to pay the Bank the interest on the mortgage until the end of 2020. Others provide rent free housing before the completion of the house. And finally, the sensation of recent years — mortgage at 6.5% and some banks even under 5.9 percent. At the same time, at the request of the purchaser in the mortgage loan can include finishing of the apartment and even furnishings. But all these, of course, an attractive offer would be a good “peace” time, but not in conditions of uncertainty.
and the percentage of the mortgage, if to do simple calculations, not so gratuitous.
In April, the failure of mortgages was four times compared to the “peaceful” time. As soon as we introduced a rate of 5.9%, we have reached 70% of a normal mortgage. Only in Russia by the end of April it was given 90 thousand of “cheap” mortgage loans amounting to 208 billion rubles. However, what would the rate of 5.9% may seem magical, but it leads to a serious overpayment. Mortgages for 15 years is comparable to the cost of the housing, that is actually a person pays money for another apartment, — said the Deputy Chairman of IBC Alexander Kaznacheev. — There is the example of Singapore, which has introduced a mortgage rate of 1%. By March the number of sales in the city-state exceeded sales in March last year.
In February and March in the Moscow region was sold for 550 thousand square meters, in April 400 thousand. The decline is noticeable — on average, 30 percent. Moreover, in the upper class — premium de Luxe sales fell three times: from 12 thousand square meters per month up to 4 thousand.
the Housing business, comfort and economy classes fell by 25%, and in antileader is Moscow, including New. In the Moscow region in the second half of April sales were 3-5 times less than in the first.
Sales in the capital’s housing market — and that one-third of the Federal market — fell by 21% .1,9 million square meters were sold in the Moscow region for January-April of 2020. In the same period of 2019 — nearly 2.5 million top 10 companies that occupy more than 60% of the market, the decline is not as noticeable — if you look at the amount. If we take the company from 6 to 10-th place — the drop in sales is a third.
But the rest of the market — 750 developers fell by 35%.
And the statistics — not even for April, and for the cumulative period from January to April inclusive.
More than that. The drop in sales in the Moscow region recorded even during the first three months, excluding a disastrous April. According to analysts of the Department of project consulting Est-a-Tet, the year the volume of demand in the Moscow region decreased by 14%, and from January to March 2020 was sold 742 tis. sq. m In New Moscow the demand for the year fell by 19%, and for 3 months of 2020 has sold 260 thousand sq. m.
Abruptly surrendered its position as the largest Metropolitan Builder. At the beginning of the year, the company on average sold 30 thousand “squares” in a week, and at the end of April — only 5-7 thousand. Have developer problems and primary demand — potential buyers almost do not apply to the company. Another company, not so big but quite known, fulfilled the plan by April 60% — and this is a good indicator.
And it’s not the most astonishing facts. It turns out that according to official statistics, the price of housing in Moscow for the year increased by 15%. From January to April 2020, the average cost per square meter in Moscow amounted to 155 thousand rubles. In the same period of 2019, she kept at 136 thousand rubles, and the market leaders were even lower — 132 thousand. Why? The interesting question, of course. But the authentic answer is no.
— in Russia as a whole by the end of April, demand dropped by more than 30%. If in February and March in an average week sold 300 to 350 thousand square meters, in the last week of April — a total of 220 thousand — quoted Nikita Belousov.
the Decrease in interest of buyers to purchase housing in different regions unevenly. For example, in Moscow the sales volume in the second half of April fell in half, from 45 to 50 thousand square meters per week up to 20-25 thousand. Here, for example, in the Novosibirsk region, unlike the country as a whole, sales fell by only 10% (per thousand square meters in a week). Even in the may holidays, when there were only three days, it sold 5 thousand “squares”. Optimists believe that good performance associated with a fairly mild quarantine measures — say, Siberians are not as acute as, say, Muscovites, feel threatened by the epidemic.
the sales Decline will continue in the summer. According to analysts, large companies it will be 15-30% (including public support), the medium and small — from 30 to 70%. These figures are fresh, taking into account the current situation in the housing market. In early April, when the scale of the disaster only began to take shape, experts cited a more cautious figures. But they looked scary.
With this situation, developers had no choice but to ask for help from the state. And they got it. A month ago Vladimir Putin instructed to provide the following Home.Of the Russian Federation state guarantees in the amount of 50 billion rubles for the redemption of unsold apartments comfort class from developers. It was planned that the state will purchase 412 developers of apartments comfort class in 707 houses for subsequent sale on the open market, including in the framework of preferential programs. 80% of the redeemed under the program of housing has the 15 regions. Among the largest — Moscow, Moscow suburbs, St.-Petersburg, Krasnodar to��ay, Sverdlovsk oblast.
However, last week House.The Russian Federation has directed to the government new ideas, far more ambitious. “We offered to increase the purchase of housing in 3 times — up to 150 billion rubles, — said Deputy head of the analytical center of the Corporation Nikita Belousov. But while the government has not supported us”.
So the current options assume that the volume of repurchase 50 billion, as announced by the President. The money will be distributed to constituent entities of the Russian Federation in proportion to the amount of construction. This is necessary to “conditional Moscow” has not eaten the entire budget of the program. At the level of a particular region, sale of apartments is expected through an auction. The developers will offer a discount to the average market price of sales in each building that has developed over the last six months. The house, which offered the greatest discount will be considered first.
— Now the industry has several major challenges. Construction has not yet started to work, and yet understanding at the time of commissioning, says acting Minister of construction and housing and communal services of Russia Nikita Stasyshyn. — We cannot allow the bankruptcy of companies that people have not lost confidence in investing in real estate. I believe that first and foremost we need to help the regions in which sales fell the most. And yet, after people sat for a month and a half at home, one of the queries will be different quality of housing — and this request, too, need to respond.
“you Need to understand what purpose want to reach the state support measures. If the goal is to survive the crisis, like in 2008 and 2014, these measures are enough. But we hope that the government recognizes that the construction industry is the locomotive of the economy and provide even greater support,” hope developers.