War has been raging in Ukraine for almost nine months. Authors of the newspaper “Meduza” show in an analysis how things could continue in the next few weeks. Air defense in particular plays a central role in their eyes.
The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine has entered a new phase: both sides are secretly preparing for strategic attacks in the winter. In addition to mobilizing and training new soldiers, the main focus is on strengthening air defenses.
Analysts of the Russian Internet newspaper “Meduza” explain in an article how the Ukraine war can continue. They believe that without an air defense advantage, the war will result in a stalemate.
Accordingly, Russia and Ukraine are trying to overcome each other’s air defense systems, destroying as many aircraft and air defense units as possible and forcing the opponent to waste ammunition.
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As Meduza analysts suspect, this is precisely why Moscow is bombing power plants and substations in Ukraine. In other words, buildings that the soldiers there have to protect by all means.
In order for Ukraine to remain steadfast, the West has already delivered air defense systems. Russian President Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, has increased his army as part of a partial mobilization.
According to the Meduza article, however, this did not bring any significant improvements. The supply of soldiers has not yet been able to compensate for the losses of the Kremlin troops, the analysts write.
In addition, simply increasing the number of fighters does not increase the quality of the army. After all, newly recruited conscripts don’t immediately transform into combat-capable soldiers.
In addition, Russia lacks personal protective equipment, medical equipment and modern weapons for all conscripts, reports Meduza.
In addition, Ukraine is also mobilizing potential fighters. Your big advantage: According to Meduza information, the personnel reserves are far from exhausted. In the past, the country has already managed to train civilians and create new combat-capable units.
The delivery of arms from the West also played a role in the course of the war. According to the analysts, Putin understood that Russia cannot win this war without cutting off Ukraine’s supply of weapons.
NATO leaders have repeatedly said they would do whatever it takes to ensure Ukraine does not lose the war – and so far they have kept their promise.
This gives Ukraine a great advantage. Nevertheless, the question arises as to why the Russian army is unable to cut off the supply of arms to the Ukrainian armed forces.
The Meduza analysts see the reason for this in a lack of staff. Moscow lacks the soldiers to carry out an offensive that could cut off Ukraine from the west.
And long-range missiles could only be used against stationary targets. But if Russia is doing so badly, why isn’t Ukraine making a breakthrough?
The autumn weather plays a role, according to the Meduza analysts. It recently rained heavily in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk regions. This in turn affects the road conditions and makes it difficult to traverse the terrain.
According to the experts, the arrival of Russian reserves at the front, including new conscripts, could also be a reason why the decisive Ukrainian advance has not materialized so far. But the main problem is Russia’s artillery advantage, analysts said.
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In August and September, Ukrainian forces managed to disrupt Russian supplies by attacking ammunition depots with HIMARS missiles.
In the last few weeks, however, these attacks have come to a standstill – at least there are hardly any new videos of such attacks, according to the analysts. They conclude that Russia may have been more adept at distributing its ammunition stockpiles.
In addition, the Russian air defense is also stalling Ukraine’s progress, Meduz.a reports. Even if it weren’t particularly effective, the systems would shoot down Ukrainian reconnaissance drones and missiles.
As a result, Ukraine does not use planes, helicopters or Bayraktar attack drones, the Russian internet newspaper writes in the article. The analysts currently consider peace negotiations to be unlikely.
Putin’s idea of a compromise would involve large territorial concessions. This cannot be satisfactory for either Ukraine or the West. Consequently, Ukraine is not ready for any such compromise either.
Accordingly, the Russian armed forces will try to find new ways to use their remaining advantages. As long as neither side is in real danger of defeat, the war will continue, analysts say.