Russia has been at war with Ukraine for almost nine months. The EU and NATO countries are supporting the attacked country, but have so far not been affected themselves. Now a rocket hit in Poland is exacerbating the situation. What we know – and what we don’t.

A Russian-made rocket hits Poland near the border with Ukraine, killing two people. Poland and the western allies are worried. Moscow denies any responsibility. It is unclear who fired the missile. An overview of what happened:

On Tuesday afternoon, about six kilometers from the Ukrainian border, an explosion occurred at a farm in the village of Przevodow. Two people lost their lives. The private Polish broadcaster Radio Zet was the first to report the impact of two misguided rockets in Przewodow on Tuesday. According to the Kiev count, Russia fired at Ukraine on Tuesday with more than 90 rockets and cruise missiles.

It was a rocket from “Russian production”, according to a spokesman for the Polish Foreign Ministry on Wednesday night. However, US President Joe Biden spoke of indications that the projectile was an anti-aircraft missile from Ukraine.

The Interfax Ukraina news agency in Kyiv reported, citing military experts, that the missiles could have been Russian Ch-101 cruise missiles. The first photos of debris at the point of impact pointed to the missiles of the S-300 air defense system for other experts. This system of Soviet design is an essential part of the Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense.

That’s what Poland says: Polish President Andrzej Duda emphasized that there is currently “no clear evidence” as to who fired the rocket. One must rely on facts, “on what our allies know,” said Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Poland would work in cooperation with international experts to find out everything that happened in the village. Duda spoke of an “isolated” incident. There is nothing to indicate that further rocket attacks in Poland are to be expected.

That’s what Russia says: Russia denied any responsibility for the missile impact. The government in Moscow described the accusations as a “provocation” intended to cause an escalation. The photos of alleged debris that are circulating in the Polish media also have nothing to do with Russian weapon systems.

This is what the USA says: According to the USA, the missile was probably not fired from Russia. “I’ll make sure we find out exactly what happened,” Biden said after a crisis meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali. According to the information currently available, it is “unlikely” that the missile was launched from Russian soil.

That’s what NATO says: A NATO military official told the American broadcaster “CNN” that the flight path of the missile could be traced. “The radar data [from the missile] was made available to NATO and Poland,” the official said. He didn’t go into details. According to the first reports, Secretary General Stoltenberg had warned against hasty reactions: “It is important that all facts are established,” Stoltenberg wrote on Twitter on Tuesday. “NATO is monitoring the situation and the alliance partners are coordinating closely,” emphasized Stoltenberg.

That’s what Germany says: Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke out in favor of intensive investigations into the rocket impact. “It is now necessary to carefully clarify how this destruction could have happened there,” he said on Wednesday after a crisis meeting of the G7 and NATO countries.

That’s what Ukraine says: “This is a Russian missile attack on collective security!” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said after the blast. After the missile hit Polish territory, Kyiv is pushing for the establishment of a no-fly zone. “We ask for the sky to be closed because the sky has no borders,” Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov wrote on Twitter. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has called for a tough and “principled” response to the missile strike. He made that clear during a phone call with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Kuleba said on Twitter on Wednesday.

The Russian ambassador in Warsaw was summoned to provide “immediate detailed explanations” of the incident. A government spokesman said several combat units of the Polish army and “other uniformed” troops had been put on increased alert. According to Prime Minister Morawiecki, the country is also increasing the monitoring of its airspace. After the meeting of the Polish Security Council, Polish President Duda called Biden, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Selenskyj, as Duda’s office announced on Twitter on Tuesday evening.

A spokesman for the Polish government said that a decision had been made with the NATO allies to examine whether there were grounds for initiating the Article 4 procedures of the NATO treaty. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has called an emergency meeting of NATO ambassadors in Brussels for Wednesday. Duda said it was “very likely” that the Polish ambassador would invoke Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty at the meeting and demand a debate between the 30 allies.

Article 4 provides for consultations between NATO states if a country sees the integrity of its territory, its political independence or its own security threatened. However, this does not necessarily result in common steps. NATO’s response to the missile impact in Poland will likely depend heavily on whether it was accidental or intentional.

The impact marks the first encroachment of the nearly nine-month Russian war of aggression against Ukraine on EU and NATO territory. The situation in Washington, Brussels and the EU capitals was correspondingly tense. All promised Poland their support.

Biden had invited to a crisis meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali. French President Emmanuel Macron and Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the heads of government from Great Britain, Italy, Canada and Japan sat at the table. Biden had previously spoken to Polish President Andrzej Duda on the phone. Scholz (SPD) reiterated in a phone call with Duda that Germany is “close to our NATO partner Poland,” government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned of a further escalation of the Ukraine war. Guterres was “very concerned,” his spokesman Farhan Haq said. An escalation of the war in Ukraine must be avoided at all costs.