International investors are actively reducing the presence on the Russian market. Over the past week only out of funds derived from $90 million, the trend has already spread to the bond market, which lost $70 million against inflow of $30 million a week earlier. Market recovery in the spring has allowed investors to gain a handsome profit, and General uncertainty in the world, associated with the second wave of the pandemic, reducing the risk appetite. The situation is aggravated by talk about the possibility of imposing new sanctions against Russia.Data Emerging Portfolio Fund Research (EPFR) show a marked decline in interest in the Russian market by international investors. According to Bank of America and BCS Global Markets (consider EPFR), for the week ended 1 July, investors withdrew from equity funds (including global), which invests in Russian securities, $90 million — 4.5 times more than the previous week.Of bond funds, including global investing in Russia, investors pulled more than $70 million (compared to inflows of $30 million in the previous week). In such conditions Russian stock indexes remain without expressed dynamics for a month, yield of Russian government bonds rose above 6% per annum, and the auction at the end of June on placement of OFZ the Ministry of Finance raised the minimum amount for the last three months.International investors are reducing riskier investments worldwide. From stock funds they help raise funds in developed countries (from the collections of the US — $4.8 billion, funds Europe — $1.3 billion) and developing countries ($3.1 billion).Outflows from bond funds only affected emerging markets ($1.9 billion), while bond funds investment grade was the inflow of ($12.3 billion). Apart from them as an alternative to investments, investors have chosen gold funds, where inflows totaled $2 billion (see “Kommersant” on 30 June).The second quarter generally has been very successful for the financial markets (the best on the dynamics of stock for many years). As noted by the chief strategist of BCS Global Markets Vyacheslav Smolyaninov, after partial recovery of emerging markets in may and early June, the interest from investors has slowed down significantly, many investors began to fix profit that has led to outflows of funds.According to portfolio Manager of “Alfa Capital” Dmitry Dorofeev, a feared second wave of the pandemic and the re-introduction of restrictive measures.Asset Manager “Region Esset Management” Alexey Skaballanovich says that the second wave may strike “in developing countries, where medicine is not so developed and the negative effect can emerge stronger.”However, market participants say that Russia in this plan is a little different. In particular, the virus seems to be under control, and enterprises have been allowed to work again. Besides ned��of EIT was cut the key rate and has taken additional measures to support the economy.However, as noted by Alex Skaballanovich again “any talk about the possible introduction of new sanctions” from the United States. The asset Manager of UK “Opening” Dmitry kosmodemyansky clarifies that the important news that affected the mood of market participants, is a story associated with the publication of the New York Times about the actions of Russia in Afghanistan. Moreover, according to him, Russia is more likely a tool of struggle of the American establishment against the administration of Donald trump, who is easy to scare voters, not self-targeted. Experts do not expect that such conversations will get to the real action, however, this factor had a negative influence on the yields of government securities.A high degree of uncertainty in both the global and the Russian market in the near future will remain, the experts admit another sharp shift in investor sentiment. The latter, says Mr. Smolyaninov, will pay attention to the statements of companies in the reporting season – their caution in assessing the prospects of the business.Dmitry Dorofeev highlights and other factors. “If there are signs of rising inflation, the Central banks will tighten policy (e.g., reduce the volume of redemption of bonds) that will lead to the correction of markets,” he commented. In addition, he said, should pay attention to dividend policy of Russian companies, given the recent mandatory reduction and even abandonment of dividend payments by large companies in connection with COVID-19.Dmitry Mikhailovich
