Appeared in Russia forecast of the spread of coronavirus: the worst scenario is not so bad in comparison with other countries

In Russia, the number of new cases of coronavirus Saturday, March 28, amounted to 1264 (+228 per day). Most cases are still in Moscow - 817 infected, four died In Russia the number of new cases of coronavirus Saturday, March 28, amounted to 1264 (+228 per day). Most cases are still in Moscow – 817 infected, four died
Photo: Mikhail Tikhonov /

In Russia the number of new cases of coronavirus Saturday, March 28, amounted to 1264 (+228 per day). Most cases are still in Moscow – 817 infected, four died.

President Vladimir Putin has said that to win the coronavirus in Russia will be faster than three months. In part, this statement is justified by the fact that in the summer months, indeed, the spread of viral infections is weakened. But this is only a seasonal attenuation of the epidemic.

according to a Professor at the University of Queensland Ian McKay, specializing in Virology, the new coronavirus can’t be beaten completely. They will overcome everything in the world. COVID-19 will be the so-called endemic infection, which the man periodically faced for all his life. This happens with the already known world coronaviruses, mainly cause a cold. The infectiousness of these viruses reaches a maximum in winter, but people get them in the spring, summer, and fall.

So you should not assume that in any country of the world, particularly in Russia, the situation with COVID-19 will be different than in other parts of the world.

According to the model of the epidemic upon which the British government, if not to take preventive measures, in the worst case cov in the year of 2020 can be infected with 7 billion people and killed 40 million people. To reduce these figures can only strict quarantine measures. If they implement, the number of victims of coronavirus will be “only” 1.3 million people. For example, in the UK, in the worst case scenario die 500 thousand people, and at best is only 6 000. In Germany, the government expects that, in the best scenario, will die 12 thousand people, and in the worst case 1 million In the United States under the worst-case scenario – up to 200 thousand dead in the summer, and in the best case – 80 thousand deaths.

there are No data on the potential number of infected Russians in Russia is not officially published. Forecasts about the possible number of dead officially, no. On state television and in state-run media, none of the numerous experts on this topic does not apply. Officially all information about the possible number of victims of infection in Russia in advance is considered a fake and will be prosecuted by law, up to imprisonment.

But, despite this, the Russian center of the “Dossier” of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, published “analysis of the measures of the RF government anti-COVID-19”, which is named and possible deaths from the coronavirus in Russia.

In his televised address to the nation Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that, in connection with the coronavirus, the epidemiological situation is under control of Russian authorities. He stressed that thanks to the measures taken in advance of health the spread of coronavirus infection has been slow, and the infections are primarily connected with the geographical position of Russia, which borders with the countries affected by the HIV epidemic. Immediately after Putin’s speech in the Russian media appeared information about the first two deaths from the coronavirus. This created the impression that the President lifted the veto on the subject itsthem performance.

Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Tatyana Golikova, head of the operational headquarters for the counter-coronavirus, said a question about flash COVID-19 in Russia “absolutely bloated story.” Government publicly referred to the panic surrounding the spread of coronavirus infections of exaggerated.

But in the analytical reviews prepared for the government of the Moscow region, and allegedly at the disposal of the Centre “Dossier”, they say that the real number of infections by coronavirus infection (COVID-19) significantly higher than the official figures. Experts note that the absence of restrictive measures can lead to an exponential increase in the number of cases of coronavirus infection of the Russians.

In the review, allegedly prepared for the government of the Moscow region, are considered projections of the incidence of coronavirus in Moscow until June 10, two different scenarios – without urgent action and with the introduction of the quarantine.

the first scenario it is expected that by the end of March in Moscow and the Moscow region will be about 10 000 infected, and by mid-April almost 100,000. In early may, the epidemic may reach a peak of 2.2 million infected people (or 19% of the population), of which hospitalization will require up to 200 000 cases (despite the fact that the total number of hospital beds in Moscow is about 60 000, including other patients).

it is Expected that by may intensive care with the ventilator may be needed 50,000 people.

the Daily mortality from respiratory diseases may increase 100-300 times. A daily mortality caused by a coronavirus, at the peak of the epidemic may be about 1 000. Thus, from the coronavirus in the next two to three months may die about 30 000 people, the document says “File”. (The usual annual statistics of deaths in Moscow is about 120 000 people).

If bUdet introduced strict quarantine, the peak of the epidemic will move to the end of April, and the maximum number of infected could be reduced almost 10 times (up to 250,000). This will reduce the mortality rates by June 2020, nine times – the number of deaths in this case could reach only 3,000 people, compared to 28 000 without the imposition of measures. Daily deaths from the coronavirus in the time of the peak in this case may be about 300 people a day (in the capital die every day 320-330 people, without regard to epidemics, disasters, etc.). Need a total of about 20 000 ordinary hospital beds and 5,000 resuscitation.

If not urgent restrictive measures, up to 60-70% of the population may be infected within 3-4 months, and the total deaths from the coronavirus in the country can be from 1 to 6 million people, according to the Center Profile. Hospitalization while at the same time need about 3-4 million people, despite the fact that the country has only 40 000 of the ventilator.