A few weeks ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi announced a huge counter-offensive in the south of the country. With a million soldiers they want to reconquer the south of the country and drive out the Russian invaders.

This offensive has not yet started. But time is ticking: Several military experts explain on Twitter why the counterattack must start soon – even if the Ukrainian army is not yet ready for it.

In a Twitter thread, Australian military expert Mick Ryan explains: “The Ukrainian government is likely to be under pressure to launch an offensive – before winter, to maintain Western support.” Ryan is clear: “Even if the military is not ready for an offensive, political reasons might force them to launch anyway.”

US expert Dara Massicot adds in an article for Foreign Affairs: “Ukraine must use its counterattack momentum to prevent Moscow from incorporating the conquered territories into Russia.”

After all, if Russia officially annexes the conquered areas, it will give them a strategic advantage – although the West is unlikely to recognize the annexation.

Massicot’s guess: Russia could impose a cease-fire that Ukraine can hardly accept. Russia would then probably declare Ukrainian attacks as an attack on its own – annexed – territory and threaten with appropriate countermeasures for “self-defense”, including nuclear weapons. Hoping to dissuade the West from supporting Ukraine.

Therefore, according to Massicot, Ukraine and Russia have opposing intermediate goals in the war: Russia is trying to freeze the front lines to buy time for an annexation of the conquered territories, while Ukraine is trying to prevent exactly that.

According to Mick Ryan, this is the main reason why Zelenskyj could feel compelled to launch the announced counter-offensive in the south. According to the Australian military expert, four points are crucial for the course of such a counter-offensive:

First question: What strategic goal is Ukraine pursuing in such a counter-offensive? Ryan sees two options. An objective focused on the enemy troops, such as destroying all Russian troops west of the Dnieper River. Or: A geographical goal, such as conquering certain cities.

According to Ryan, both of these options have one thing in common: they are designed to destroy Russian morale and their will to continue the war.

The second important point according to Ryan: how will the Ukrainian forces be distributed on the different fronts? To do this, a decision must first be made as to how many fronts one wants to launch counterattacks at the same time – only then can soldiers, logistical and intelligence capacities be distributed accordingly.

“The clock is always ticking in war,” writes Ryan. The military expert is certain that the timing of the Ukrainian counter-offensive is of the utmost importance for its success. The best starting point for the offensive depends on how good Ukrainian reconnaissance is in the relevant areas.

However, Ryan also repeats: There are not only military aspects that can determine the start of the offensive, but also political ones.

Fourth point according to Ryan: The strategic support. This also includes weapons supply for the Ukrainian troops – be it from their own industry or from Western countries.

It is unclear when the Ukrainian counter-offensive will start. One thing is clear: the clock is ticking – Ukraine can probably no longer afford to wait long.

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