Analysis by conflict expert Mike Martin: Putin’s terror bombing shows what he fears most

16/10/2022

Rockets hit Ukraine again on Sunday. According to Russia, it has destroyed several ammunition dumps and rocket launchers in Ukraine. As is so often the case in war, this information cannot be independently verified. But it is undisputed that the Russian army has intensified its shelling of Ukraine in the past week.

It was particularly bad on Monday. Rockets exploded in the capital Kyiv for the first time in several months. Many of them hit civilian targets – the image of a crater in Kyiv, where a children’s playground used to be, went around the world.

Russian missiles aimed at civilian targets are a recurring theme throughout the course of the war. The conflict researcher Mike Martin cannot understand this from a military point of view. “Why waste missiles on targets that don’t shoot back?” asks Martin in a thread on Twitter. For Martin, this makes it particularly clear what Putin and the Russian leadership are most afraid of: the “home front,” as Martin calls it. The rocket terror “is mainly for the people at home to demonstrate that you are doing something,” explains Martin.

It goes with the fact that Putin announced the successful implementation of the mobilization in Russia. “In reality, the mobilization had more negative effects on political stability in Russia than it could ever have had a positive impact on the battlefield,” writes Martin. “More people have fled Russia than have been mobilized.” On Thursday, the Kremlin had to admit for the first time that some of the mobilized soldiers had already died in Ukraine.

Martin sums up the war week in simple terms: “It was a week of regrouping for Ukraine and incompetence for Russia,” he wrote on Twitter. After the Ukrainians were able to recapture large areas, the army is currently on an “operational pause”.

Former US General Ben Hodges also has a clear opinion on the current situation in the war. “When I look at the situation, I see that the situation of the Russians is getting worse every week. They say that war is a test of will and logistics – and Ukraine is far superior on both counts,” Hodges summarized the events to the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung”.

For Hodges, the Kremlin has “only one hope”: “that the West will lose its support for Ukraine. “So they are doing everything they can to prolong the war and spread fear and insecurity in the West. All means are right for them: the young men who are now being called up as cannon fodder, as well as attacks on the infrastructure in the West,” said the ex-general.

“I believe that we will therefore experience more such acts of sabotage and attacks or at least attempts in the coming weeks and months,” is Hodges’ gloomy prognosis. For him, the war can only end one way: “The Russians have to lose – otherwise they’ll try again in two or three years.”

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