numbers In Germany as clutter. According to the Robert Koch-Institute 31.554 people are infected at present with the Coronavirus. It is considered the official reporting of the Federal States, figures are, however, 32.888, the John Hopkins University, according to already 35.353 people (Stand: 25. March; 17 PM). the

these differences, different reporting systems Due to. While the countries publish, in part, to projections without the background information, the RKI, according to the President Lothar Wieler only officially diagnosed final results.

But none of these Numbers. Dirk Brockmann, a physicist at the Robert-Koch Institute, told FOCUS Online, he consider the number of Infected only “as a kind of sample”. The number of unreported cases is high, virologists expect to part with a ratio of ten actual cases proven.

No data is evidence, however, measures

What is the significance of these Numbers also reduced, is the time factor: Because by the incubation time, the Test and evaluation period in the present case, back pay for infections of 5-10 days.

another Problem: The number of the tested Infected only has a little to do with the number of actually Infected. People that show no clear symptoms, will be tested only in the rarest of cases.

Indeed, the Robert-Koch Institute, loosened his test criteria. In the future people Covid-19 to be tested, which had not been previously in a high-risk area, yet to be checked, only persons with symptoms.

The data chaos that makes many people fear, insecurity rife, more and more. Because, although there is no clear data and evidence, adopt policies that restrict us in our everyday life enormously. Measures, the stalling of the economic engine of our country. to clarify

the question of whether Germany can go back to the extremely costly Shutdown of key areas of its infrastructure, the decision-makers with better data. Currently, the Act of a fog ride is like, in the Navigate through Essentials as a scientifically based Decide is sold.

statistician calls for representative Tests

The statistician, Katharina Schüller represents, therefore, a further approach to the true extent of the pandemic to better estimate. It calls the implementation of representative Tests . Instead of checking only to people with symptoms, you should test daily for a certain number of people. To do this, you started a Petition. Katharina Schueller

Katharina Schüller Stat is managing Director and founder of the company “up”. The statistician developed a risk-modeling Software for the Federal Institute for risk assessment (BfR), and worked a few years ago, Kary Mullis, received the discovery of the PCR (the biochemical basis of the Tests) the Nobel prize. Together with other experts published monthly in the “same UN statistics, of the month” for the classification-to-date statistics.

“Just as you can gather representative opinions, for example, election forecasts, one could also test,” says Schüller to FOCUS Online. It is important to test regularly to check daily at least 300 people to monitor the development of the Figures better. “So you can see how the number of Infected individuals changes over time.”

in addition to the Tests for additional characteristics should be collected: age, concomitant diseases, or whether people smoked or not.

“So we can better see who is really at risk – and that’s even before symptoms occur.” The need to check people before they would to the suspected case.

Representative Tests could show whether the measures are effective

but Above all, the regular surveys may give an indication of whether the taken measures, such as output restrictions were effective. “At the Moment we have to wait fourteen days until we see the first potential successes. And forever, we are not able to maintain the measures, neither from an economic nor from a social point of view.“

According to Schüller, the reporting of data and Expertise of the statistical agencies are far from sufficient to plan a day a few hundred Tests on a representative population sample. “In order for would very much stronger statements about the infection and the risk of death by the Coronavirus meeting, as with the previous, purely reactive approach.”

  • All the news about the outbreak of the Virus, you read in the News Ticker

in support of its claims, the statistician on two points:

Systematic Testing would have shown in the past to success. So you have brought about in the Italian Vó Vecchio to light, that upon the Occurrence of the first case with symptoms is already 3 per cent of the population were infected.

in Addition, a Simulator of the Robert Koch-Institute show a scenario, where already a third of the population would be immune accepted . “This assumption would not be unlikely, if there is already a lot more a symptom of loose or symptom of poor infections occurred than previously suspected,” says Schüller more. Such a scenario would enable a much more efficient Isolation and treatment, and could be confirmed with several Tests.

capacities would not be sufficient

“My proposal is to test every day, hundreds of thousands of people,” explains the statistician. 300 to 1000 people per day would be sufficient, to the development of the Virus in a much better estimate. For Schüller, according to capacity.

“is the Material for the Tests available,” says Schueller, “it remains only in Germany and Europe”.

for example, the Swiss biotechnology giant Roche deliver weekly, 400,000 tests in the United States. A few weeks ago, the Berlin-based company “Tib” had developed this Test, the reagents are manufactured in the factory of Roche in Penzberg, near Munich.

Schüller emphasized that the Kits should not be produced only here, but also in sufficient quantities in Germany and Europe would have to remain, “so that we can test reasonably, instead of restricting the freedom of all and to affect the economy on a massive scale.”

“decisions are flying blind

hit” “We are in a Situation in which we have very poor data,” explains the statistician. “Currently, important decisions in the history of the Federal Republic must be taken in blind flight. We can only guess what measures are likely to be the Right thing to do. But we have no idea how well and how quickly they act. Thus, we should not be satisfied.“

Instead, should try politics and scientists to get as soon as possible to obtain meaningful data. The damage that would otherwise, in the economic and social sphere, otherwise is much too high. “We need to try to give the population the feeling of security. Show them that we are about to understand the Virus better and do everything so that the other measures are based on solid data.“

physicians President: “Very intelligent measure,”

doctors Also President Klaus Reinhardt spoke out in favour of this proposal. In an Interview with Gabor Steingart, he said: “I consider that this would be a very smart action, in order to gain a complete picture of the extent of the pandemic.”

He stressed that the rapid tests may have error rates. Nevertheless, it was a very clever idea, to be able to using a high accounts, a better appraisal of the situation.

Reinhardt said that the number of unreported cases is high, some virologists feared the factor of 10. “We just, we have 25,000 Infected, in truth, so then 250.000. The Numbers of deaths on the intensive care unit are correct, you agree to 1:1.“ This is a very different ratio of infections and severe cases and deaths resulting.

Kiel Institute for the world economy: “the Instrument that we now urgently need -”

scientists at the Kiel Institute for the world economy (ifW) rates also to representative Tests. IfW-President Gabriel Felbermayr, said: “The economic policy must be dovetailed in times of a pandemic closely with the health policy requirements. Both policies can only be evidence-based to be brought into line. For this purpose, the width tests, are an Instrument that we now urgently need.“

The Institute proposes to test all of the five days for the population as a representative sample to a Corona virus infection. “So far the allegedly low prevalence suggests a sample size of 10,000 persons, in order to obtain meaningful results. On the Basis of the determined values, reliable statements about levels of morbidity can then be used for the first time – and mortality rates to derive“, to explain the Institute’s researchers.

See you in the PCP you can See in the