MOSCOW, 1 may — RIA Novosti. a Mathematical model was able to identify peaks of the epidemic according to the Federal districts, reported RIA Novosti, the candidate of economic Sciences, expert of the Center for economic research, Aghasi Tavadyan.
the Calculations are on a logarithmic curve drawn on statistical data on the incidence of.
“the Dynamics to which I have the greatest trust is Moscow, here is the most detailed published data. In addition, the epidemic started earlier and time series data longer. The dynamics are clearly characterized by curves logistic growth”, — said Tavadyan.
according to the scientist, the peak of the pandemic in the capital is expected soon. The dynamics of the disease in Moscow is reminiscent of the dynamics of the big cities of Europe and the United States.
“it Should be noted that on 17 April 2020, an indicator slightly decreased and she has changed for the better. The capital in early may will be the peak of the epidemic”, — said Tavadyan.
the suburbs, he said, will be the peak incidence just before Moscow.
“Dynamics CFD in the aggregate resembles the dynamics of Moscow. Only in Moscow is projected to be about five thousands of daily cases at the peak. At the end of this wave in the Central Federal district regions, excluding Moscow and the Moscow region, is registered about 60 thousand positive cases,” — said the scientist.
He also said that St. Petersburg your data has multiple peaks.
“It means that was not alone the epicenter of the infection, and several epicenters that develop separately. In urban dynamics can be seen a few mini wave infection, which accelerated the overall growth of the infestation. 13 April 2020, the dynamics became stable with no significant growth,” — said the Agency interlocutor.
Tavadyan said that the model assumes the spikes so it doesn’t preclude the recurrence of such outbursts of uncontrolled proliferation.
In the Volga Federal district (PFO), he noted, is shown the negative dynamics of the spread of the virus.
“On the dynamics affects the intensity of communication between people. If people rarely communicate, comply with the social distance, the distribution dynamics will slow down, then there will be positive and the peak of the disease will be different, maybe in August to advance. If people continue to communicate and do not observe the constraints, the dynamics of diseases is growing and the peak is also shifted,” said Tavadyan.
According to the model, residents of the Volga Federal district until April 22, presumably, bad complied with the quarantine, communicated and the dynamics of growth was strong, but after that date he had a fracture and dynamics slowed down.
“Now, the forecast is that peak in PFO will come early may. At the moment there is a possibility that sarge��iy will be more in the Volga region than in the Northwest Federal district”, — said Tavadyan.
According to experts, in the Siberian Federal district it is difficult to identify a clear trend — a lot of noise, but now the angle of acceleration relative to the positive.
“the Peak is expected around mid-may 2020, when it will be registered about 200 cases at the peak” — said the scientist.
According to the calculations, the peak in North Caucasus Federal district will be in the second week of may, in the Ural Federal district in mid — June in the southern Federal district at the end of may, in the far Eastern Federal district the peak will come in early may.
As the expert explained, “far” the peak of the epidemic in the Urals is associated with the largest uncertainty of the data, therefore, to say that the Urals later all will pass the peak of the epidemic will be incorrect.
Russia is in eighth place for the number infected. On the situation at 30 April the total number infected has reached 106 498, 1073 of them were killed, 11 619 recovered. For the last day COVID-19 diagnosed 7099 patients.
As noted on Thursday, the head of the Federal biomedical Agency Veronika Skvortsova, the rate of new cases of coronavirus in Russia have been significantly reduced, the plateau on the new case of the disease have, in fact, achieved.
the Latest data on the situation of COVID-19 in Russia and the world presented on the portal stopmanager.of the Russian Federation.
