“The aid package the Federal government is not good, but it should be enough”, warns the Ifo chief Clemens Fuest, compared to the “German wave”. The Problem was that the government had frozen the economy to some extent. “It is in the aspects of health protection is essential, now the economy to continue that activity down,” stresses Fuest. In the case of the aid packages, the key is to get the company in this “freezing phase in the life-and especially small businesses and Solo-self-employed helps”.
ZEW President Wambach: “we Are well prepared, but they will still see bankruptcies,” PCP ZEW President Wambach: “we Are well prepared, but they will still see bankruptcies”
but That doesn’t change the fact that the production is at a standstill. “And that can make public money at all bet,” said Fuest more. “We must, therefore, work at the same time, how we then proceed, as soon as possible back or at least some of which are highly can to. Because if there is a economic stabilisation (at a low level, the Red.) comes, then you will not hold the Shutdown by“, warns the expert from the LMU in Munich.
In the case of prolonged Shutdown Growth dips Fuest calculates up to 20 percent
Should be able to Germany relatively quickly from the Shutdown free, then the slump will be “probably five to six percent of gross domestic product,”. That would be a little more than to stand on the peak of the financial crisis – but still comparatively good. Reuters/Christina Sabrowsky ifo chief Clemens Fuest
“If the Shutdown lasts longer, for example three months, and then a couple of months until we are back to the normal level, then it is very fast at very high Growth dips up to 20 percent,” so Fuest more. Something like that have happened so far only in the world economic crisis of the 1930s. And also today, Germany would risk with such values, the economic destabilization of “at least”.
“Then no aid package from the government can help us,”
“This should not happen,” says Fuest. “If we extend this Shutdown, it can help no aid package from the government to us. So we have to manage the Exit from this Shutdown, we neglect the fight against the epidemic. This is exactly why we must now develop strategies.“
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His colleague, Marcel Fratzscher from the German Institute for economic research (DIW) in Berlin, identified the time as the “critical factor”: The economic cost would grow exponentially with the duration of the economic Shutdowns. “Especially small businesses cope with the Shutdown maybe for a month or two from your reserves, then you are advised to however, often in solvency problems,” said Fratzscher, compared to FOCUS Online.
Fratzscher: the longer the Shutdown, the greater will be the damage
that is not enough: the longer the Shutdown lasts, the more severe the economy will be up and Running again “and the greater the permanent damage will be. It must be found in the coming weeks, a mechanism that is agreed upon, the effective limitation of virus propagation and a gradual start-up of the economy”, claims Fratzscher. dpa/Daniel Naupold Economist Marcel Fratzscher: “For Europe, a right-wing government in Italy would be an even bigger nightmare than the current government.” Photo. Daniel Naupold
The Economist Daniel Stelter looks similar. The question of Finance is for him a matter of secondary importance – the government have finally, it says unlimited aid. A preliminary boundary of the Economist, while recognizing that, because the government had just approved a debt of about 100 billion, and “that’s enough, in my opinion, for about four weeks,” says Stelter.
a Prolonged Shutdown would jeopardize hundreds of thousands of companies
But a longer-term Shutdown would in any case be a completely different challenge. “Speed it comes through the measures to significant sales, are at risk, hundreds of thousands of companies in Germany,” said Stelter in a guest post for FOCUS Online. “In an economic system in which there is always a ‘pre-financing’ behind each business, leads to a Collapse of demand will inevitably lead to a wave of bankruptcies. At the end of the financial system,“ the Economist, staggers. Daniel Stelter, Daniel Stelter
For Stelter for a lenient course of the Corona pandemic in Germany and the associated economic consequences, especially on the will of the people: “The question is: how Much are we ready to wear? “ says Stelter. His answer: “a Maximum of a quarter.”
“the economy would have to be put in artificial coma”
‘ll not be controlled against, was an economic crisis is the result, “the world economic crisis in the shadows.” Specifically, the Economist proposes an artificial coma for the economy – as in the medicine For a certain period of time everything should be set: “No wages, no Rent, no interest. We do just as a quarter would not take place economical. There were no revenues, but there would also be no obligations.“
So would avoid it comes to uncontrollable insolvency waves that could tear the economy like a Domino effect in the abyss. For those who have due to the Virus, no revenue, proposes Stelter also a balance, so that they had, “according to the coma phase, no pain,” more. Could be used to Finance the state, these measures Stelter, according to the new debt that the state may even accommodate a negative interest rate.
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Where is Coronavirus? Real-time map showing the spread of the disease, FOCUS Online/Wochit lung disease Covid-19: Where is Coronavirus? Real-time map showing the spread of the disease