World merchandise trade is likely to remain weak in the coming months because, according to the world trade organization, the outbreak of the coronavirus in China will have a negative impact on international trade, which reduced tariffs and uncertainty, writes Bloomberg.
Last predictable barometer of merchandise trade, the Geneva-based WTO was 95,5 compared to 96.6 per in November.
Readings of 100 indicators point to growth next quarter in line with medium-term trends, while values above or below 100 indicate the height above or below the recent trend.
“Slow start may be even more weakened global threats in health care and other recent developments in the first few months of the year, which is not taken into account in the available data barometer”, — stated in the materials of the WTO.
According to the organization, the volume of world merchandise trade fell by 0.2% in the third quarter of last year compared with a year earlier.
“the Latest readings of the barometer do not indicate a sustained recovery”, — stated in the message.
“Indeed, annual growth of trade may again fall in the first quarter of 2020, although official statistics confirming it will be available only in June,” said WTO.
the Fall in trade volumes in recent months was due to reduced container traffic, agricultural products and the alignment of the index for automotive products, announced in the organization.
Indicators of export orders, aviation and electronic components, although below the basic level, “appears to have stabilized and, as a rule, in the coming months to grow.”
“However, the barometer of merchandise trade will influence the economic impact of COVID-19 (coronavirus) and the effectiveness of efforts to treat and contain the disease,” — said the experts of the WTO.
the U.S. and China signed last month, the agreement which prevented the escalation in the trade war between the two biggest economies in the world, but the two sides have kept import tariffs on the goods each other.
Meanwhile, Britain and the European Union are trying to work out an agreement on cross-border trade this year after Britain officially left the EU on 31 January after almost half a century of membership.