The index of business confidence Rosstat in June returned to the level of April 2020, in which he renewed multi-year low. Despite the fact that uncertainty came in first place in the number of constraints in the development of the companies, the economic situation in the organizations in mining is considered a favorable 9% and satisfactory — 72% of executives in the processing — respectively 7% and 68%. Thus, according to Rosstat, the profit before taxes in April 2020 was twice lower than a year ago.According to the interviews with the heads of 3.9 thousand large and medium-sized organizations in the mining and manufacturing industries in June 2020, calculated by Rosstat, the index of business confidence seasonally adjusted jumped a little higher than the level recorded in April (see chart). In mining it was minus 5.8% and in manufacturing — minus 6.9 percent. Prior to the April figures had grown and estimation of demand, remained deeply negative levels — minus 29% in mining and minus 42% in the treatment.Against this background, in June the favourable economic situation in its mining company believed 9% and satisfactory — 72% of executives in the manufacturing — 7% and 68% of the respondents. In April, the ratio was like 10% to 71% and 8% to 68%, respectively. Improving the economic situation in the next six months expect 20% in production and 27% in the treatment that has remained virtually unchanged since April, only in the latter case, the optimists were 1 percentage point (PP) more.The net financial result of Russian enterprises in April, according to Rosstat, although was better than the disastrous March, when for the first time in five years recorded a net loss (the last time the cumulative loss exceeded the profit of the height of the previous crisis — in December 2008, January 2009 and January 2015), profit before taxes in April was almost twice below last year’s volume, and for January—April fell by more than half. Note that the debt figure does not include small business, credit and non-credit financial institutions and government agencies — all except the last, were among the most affected by the lockdown. In January–April of 2020, according to operational data, the share of unprofitable enterprises in average for the economy in annual terms grew by 3.7 PP to 36.7%, in processing — by 4.2 percentage points to 35.3%, and in the production by 19.2 percentage points to 54.3%.In addition, probably on the background of growth of Internet shopping the loss of trade in January—March 67,7 billion rubles were replaced by profit 184,2 billion rubles in January—April (a decrease of 81.2% compared to January—April 2019). In the extraction of profit in January—April decreased by 33.3% against 5% in January—March due to falling oil prices. In the sphere of the energy, butRGIA, gas and steam and air-conditioning indicator in January—April decreased by 21,2%, in the sphere of Telecom growth was 12.9%, in transportation and storage, a decline of 55.2% in agriculture and 11.5%, construction at 10.4%.Against the background of such a strong fall of profits among factors limiting growth of production in June, production in the first two places took the uncertainty of the economic situation (40%) and insufficient demand on the domestic market (32%), and in the treatment of insufficient domestic demand came in first place (52%), economic uncertainty ranked second (50%). Note, however, that the prices of manufacturers for gasoline in may increased by 11.9% compared to April exceeded the expectations of the domestic market growth of fuel demand allowed them to raise.Alexey Shapovalov
