Will there be a new ruble devaluation?

Moscow, February 4 – “News.Economy.” The Russian ruble fell pretty hard from its highs, but still strong enough in comparison with the previous year. Was it worth the wait devaluation in the near future?

crude oil Prices on Monday fell to lows since late 2018, when the world markets were dominated by the collapse. The ruble then also very much cheaper and still looks very confident, even taking into account the fall in the last days.

Experts polled by TASS believe that in February, the ruble is unlikely to face much weaker.

“At the moment we believe that the virus threat has not reached the scale of pressure that could lead to a massive outflow of capital from emerging markets and ruble-denominated assets, in particular, the implementation of which the ruble would switch to a more substantial devaluation in the range of 65-67 rubles per dollar”, – said the chief analyst “BCS Premier” Anton Pokatovich.

in addition, at the next meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on 7 February, the regulator can go on another reduction of the key rate, which to some extent will protect ruble-denominated assets from increased sales. “If market sentiment will be able to resist the panic, the ruble would be formed in the range of 62.5-64,7 rubles per dollar,” – said the expert.

In turn, the analyst of management of trading operations on the Russian stock market IR “freedom Finance” Alexander Osin believes that today the ruble maintains a steady policy of exporting countries, OPEC, which is formed in the oil and gas segment.

“the Market might get in the coming days, information about the postponement of the extraordinary meeting of the OPEC conference from March to February what last week said the Ministry of energy of Algeria. Against this background, the chances of growth of the ruble to the dollar in the coming weeks prevail. The target range for the close of February for a dollar the ruble is 62,45-63,8 rubles.” – said the expert.

As noted by analysts at Nordea Markets, the ruble may well be the leader of the strengthening of the currencies of developing countries, reversing a sharp drop the past two weeks in the case of stabilization of the situation with coronavirus.

Of the negative factors for the ruble should also highlight the decline in demand from investors for emerging market assets amid fears about the spread of the coronavirus in China, said the economist of “Renaissance capital” in Russia and the CIS Sophia Donets. In addition, the pressure on the ruble has reduced demand for energy.

Anton Pokatovich also noted that the risks of a large-scale devaluation could increase substantially in the case of a steady movement of oil prices to levels of $50 and below. Text: News.Economy