the Current depreciation is due to several reasons, the economist says “BCS Premier” Anton Pokatovich. “First, the viral factor continued to weigh on risk appetites of investors. We see that in several major economies, continued strong growth in the number of cases COVID-19, which significantly increases the risks of the second wave of the pandemic. Second, geopolitical risks related to Russia are also gradually increase,” – he said.
At the same time, the current environment of oil prices (above $ 42 per barrel) may be considered by some investors as an unstable factor supporting the ruble exchange rate, according to Pokatovich. According to him, in the summer there are still risks of a return of oil prices to a correction to $ 40 per barrel and below.
One of the main reasons for the negative dynamics of the ruble – published a plan for the sale of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance on the market, from Wednesday the volume of transactions will decrease to 5.7 billion rubles a day from 10.2 billion a day in June, said the head of analytical Department of Bank “St.-Petersburg” Andrey Kadulin. “The Finance Ministry selling foreign currency, already not compensate for the decline in oil prices, which are above cut-off in the budget rule, and the reduction of production in the framework of the deal, OPEC+” – says the analyst.
According to Pokatovich in the coming days, the ruble would be formed in the range of 71.5-72.7 per per dollar, and in July, the overall rate of the ruble may return in the range of 71-75 for a dollar and be formed at levels near 73 (+/-2) rubles to the dollar by year-end.