the Agreement by OPEC regarding production cuts helped to recover oil quotations, and the expectations of reduction of the key rate by the Bank of Russia on the background of ultra-loose monetary policy of the Central banks of developed countries and large-scale programme of asset purchases, primarily of the U.S. Federal reserve, made particularly attractive investments in the Russian OFZ, says the head of analytical Department of Bank “St.-Petersburg” Andrey Kadulin. Against this background, by the beginning of June the rate has returned to around 68-69 rubles per dollar. But further strengthening remains in question, says the analyst.
According to him, further growth in oil prices is limited, though recovering, but still weak demand for oil and accumulated deposits. “The reduction of oil production in Russia will negatively affect exports, and thus on the inflow of foreign exchange on the current account of the balance of trade. The volume of currency sold by the Ministry of Finance on the market, significantly reduced already at current oil prices,” says Kazulin. In his opinion, the only scenario where we can assume the strengthening of the ruble, the rise in oil prices to $ 55 per barrel and above in combination with the refusal of the Ministry of Finance to buy foreign currency on the market in the framework of fiscal rules and the continuing influx of non-resident capital into the Russian assets, which seems unlikely.
a Significant strengthening of the rouble (by 15% from the current values) in the current year is hardly possible, says the head of analytical Department of Bank “Zenith” Vladimir Evstifeev. The price of oil in the slow recovery of the world economy will not be able to reach values of 60-70 dollars per barrel, which makes the fundamental parameters of the ruble is not strong enough for significant strengthening, he said. Even if the global interest of investors to emerging markets remain high, the ruble is unlikely to strengthen to 10-15% without the support of the oil market, says Evstifeev.
