If earlier the opponents of Lukashenko fled to the West, now his disgraced rival Tsepkalo moved to the East – to Moscow. However gave to understand that he would return, even before the presidential election, if in Minsk “will be hot”. Lukashenko has threatened to suppress the “Maidan” to use in the army. Do not turn Belarus on the night of 10 August “second Ukraine”?

President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko did not rule out that he will have to bring an army to restore order in the country. This opinion he expressed on Friday, visiting the 5th separate special purpose brigade in Maryina Gorka near Minsk. “It is undesirable, of course, so we had to resort to the Armed forces. But anything can happen, examples of this are the United States,” – said Lukashenko. The old man recalled that the American President had in some States to withdraw the army to the street.

Lukashenko pointed to the possibility of destabilizing the situation in Belarus with the participation of external forces. “Any war now start with street protests, demonstrations, and then Maidana. On the square, if its not, and we have a little “couple”, they pulled from the side. These are professional soldiers, bandits, which are specially prepared, mainly in the framework of PMCs (private military companies) throughout the world, and make a lot of money on provocations in different countries,” Lukashenka is quoted by TASS.

A day earlier, Lukashenka threatened to expel foreign journalists who, in his opinion, encourage the people to riot. And the Secretary of the security Council of Belarus Andrei Ravkov in mid-July warned that the power block of the country is ready to prevent possible riots.

As you know, the presidential elections scheduled for 9 August. This election campaign was one of the most controversial during the rule of Lukashenka. Opponents accuse the old Man in the desire to usurp power clearly at a low rating, which does not guarantee him re-election if a fair vote count.

“Lukashenko is in a difficult position, as played in the game with Russia, called “do not give cheap gas to slam the door and go into the West” – recalls the Deputy Director of the CIS Institute Vladimir Zharikhin. “I did not believe neither Russia nor the West, but he frightened a significant part of their voters. They treated him cool, but, nevertheless, voted for him, because he remained certain guarantor of continued close economic relations with Russia”, – he explained the newspaper VIEW.

“Voters understand that Belarus is the only possibility of keeping the current standard of living. They see what is happening in Ukraine, where turned away from Russia”, – said the expert. The analyst explains that e��and awkward throwing Lukashenka towards Russia and made its former voters to look for an alternative.

In addition to the incumbent President, the CEC has registered only four candidates: this is a co-chair of the Association “Tell the truth” Andrey Dmitriev, ex-Deputy of the National Assembly Anna Konopacka, businessman Sergey Caraceni and unemployed Svetlana Tikhanovski. To register, the CEC refused to the former head of Belgazprombank Viktor Babariko and former head of high-tech Park Valery Tsepkalo.

Arrested in June of Babariko on Friday, investigators filed new charges. This time he is charged with receiving a bribe in 11 million dollars as part of an organized group. In opposition to Babariko consider political prisoners. It was his arrest has stirred up the Belarusians on unauthorized protests not only in Minsk, but in other cities.

Under threat of arrest was and Tsepkalo. On Friday, he suddenly left the country and took refuge in Moscow. From the Russian capital Tsepkalo urged Moscow “not to help” Lukashenko, and also pointedly promised portal TUT.BY return to Minsk before the election, obviously hinting at mass unrest, – “if in Belarus will be hot, I’ll be there before 9 August.”

Recall that Tsepkalo can be called the most “Pro-Moscow” of all the presidential candidates. Before the escape, he said that Russia for Belarusians is “a kind of most common historical destiny”. He also said he was not against holding a referendum on unification with its Eastern neighbor, although he would prefer to see Belarus remain independent.

Zharikhin agreed: “the Tsepkalo had reason to flee to Moscow,” because he already was a criminal case. In his opinion, it is clear that the current head of Belarus intends to keep his job, and will resort to the most drastic measures, eliminating from the game all the candidates represent a threat to him. A Belarusian political analyst Dmitry Bolkunets predicts that up to 9 August at the country, a wave of arrests of persons, or otherwise influencing public opinion.

Bolkunets believes that the next “victim of the RAID” may be an Tikhanovski, as she begins to pose a threat to the government.

“Today, in small towns around Svetlana Tikhanovski a large crowd, and the consolidation of the electorate – but it is not a phenomenon support Tikhanovski, is the phenomenon of anti-Lukashenko,” – said the Belarusian expert newspaper VIEW. In Novopolotsk, Deep, Vitebsk and a number of small regional centers thousands of people come to her rallies. There was a high request to protest,” – said the source. As for the official results of voting, Balcones no doubt that the results will be rigged.

“As far as modesty enough Lukashenka is unknown, but I think no less 80% in draw– he sneers. The question is whether this would make society, and what it means in the evening after a day of voting?”.

Zharikhin does not exclude that the results of the voting can be “somewhat exaggerated”, but he believes that “most of the votes in the first round Lukashenko really gonna get it.”

“We see the mood of the population through the mood of the residents of Minsk, Gomel, but determine the outcome of the vote, the residents of small towns and villages. And they will vote for Lukashenko”, – the expert believes. As for Tikhanovski, then Zharihin considers her a threat to Lukashenko. “She’s Pro-Western person, who likes people in the center of Minsk, not more, – predicts analyst. – Tikhanovski will only get 3-4% of votes.”

Zharikhin suggests that in the night of August 10 the opposition to organize street protests. “Basically, in Minsk. However, again, this is not a real threat to the current government. They will be strictly suppressed, warned of this Lukashenka”, – the expert reminded.

Meanwhile, the head of state promised to deliver a message “to the Belarusian people and the Parliament” for a week before the vote on Monday 3 August.