21 June on the channel “Russia 1” was a documentary. In it Vladimir Putin has admitted that the family he is very simple person and so is trying to behave with people, go into all his problems. But, in addition, the Russian President said that the Constitution of the USSR, in his opinion, was not thoroughly spelled out, and it allowed the former republics to secede from the Union “with a huge number of Russian lands.” Press Secretary of the Russian President, Dmitry Peskov, tried to explain, they say, this statement does not mean that Russia has no territorial claims against its neighbors. However, the network is already predicting the beginning of a new war.
“Apostrophe” was asked to comment on this scandalous statement of the President of the Russian Federation expert on the foreign policy issues the International centre for policy studies Mykola Kapitonenko.
— In Putin’s speech draws attention to three points. First, Russia is very important to the continuation of the vision that was during the Second world war and speculation on all that surrounded her. It’s part of the concept of “Russian world”, one of the most important myths. Therefore, the words of Putin about what Russia pozabirali or anyone that Russia has given what territory helped to raise — I see mostly in this vein.
The second point concerns the Russian constitutional reforms. I believe that initially it was well in advance of an elaborate attempt to carry out the transfer of power in Russia — extended in time to preserve the state mechanism after the departure of Putin. I had not considered amendments to the Constitution, when they emerged as a mechanism to keep Putin in power — the elites understood that a difficult period of transition of power will still need to go, whether a little earlier or a little later. But the crisis phenomena in the economy, the instability of oil and everything else has led to the fact that the plans have changed a bit.
Now Putin feels that if he stays in power it will be safer for the country that the system only works because of him. He is not alone in these thoughts — all of the totalitarian leaders that have long ruled, to argue this way, especially in such a complex country as Russia. Putin can not see how many calls there are. And perhaps he really thinks that except him, nobody can handle it. Given how often he speaks about it, for it is now the number one problem. But neither the constitutional reform nor the conversations of the neighbors are not a prelude to a new war.
Regarding the third point — what someone would attack, I 2015 think that the probability is extremely low. Russia has achieved the desired objectives with the help of aggression against Ukraine. Also in 2015, she showed how much will cost the next attempt to use military force to urthe regulation conflicts with its neighbors — and Moscow knew it. I think of all the “serious” people in Russia, almost nobody is advocating a new “victorious” war, knowing that it will be too expensive, too lengthy and will not bring anything good.
And candidates for a new Russian aggression is not so much Ukraine, Belarus. The Baltic States are NATO members, the Russians never attacked. In Belarus the situation is complex, they will act, rather, not by force, but by using agents. Ukraine to fight makes no sense, because the Russians stopped perceiving Ukraine as a battlefield for the minds and sympathies. At some point the Kremlin elite has to understand that Ukraine as a whole is lost, to fight for it they did not want — it would be expensive and pointless. So, we had to minimize the risks coming from the Ukraine. Crimea seized and turned into a military base — this mission accomplished. The potential of the East of Ukraine has weakened — created quasi-Republic and created the problem for Ukraine, which seriously weakens us in the years ahead. In fact, geopolitical objectives against Ukraine Russia is more or less fulfilled. I don’t see the goals, the Kremlin began to fight with us.
Statements in the spirit of “from us with the Luggage gone” is part of the mythology of the Kremlin, Putin plays the official position. This is done for the Russian audience. This word is not for us and not even for the West. Putin once again reminds his people how Russia sees the history and the current international situation.
