a disservice to the oil market provided the latest official data on U.S. inventories. According to the energy of the country, for the week ended 17 July, they grew by almost 4.9 million barrels, although everyone expected them to decrease. Do not add optimism and information about the ongoing tensions between Washington and Beijing, which can reduce the already reduced demand for “black gold” in China.
“the oil Market remains weak. The resistance level of $ 45 per barrel, he never overcame, despite an expected infusion of liquidity in the US and Europe,” – says the analyst of commodity markets “Opening Broker” Oksana Lukicheva. In her opinion, the cause of its weakness – an expected increase in the supply of oil in August, OPEC+ and high accumulated reserves. In addition, the approximation of prices to the level of 45 dollars per barrel, provokes an increase in production of shale oil in the United States, which immediately puts pressure on its price, dropping to 40 to 43 dollars per barrel. If the current market conditions it is hardly possible to expect growth of quotations above the level of 45 dollars per barrel before the end of summer, said Lukichev.
However, the latest OPEC decision+ is now treated differently. From the point of view of the Secretary General of the Organization of countries-exporters of oil Mohammed Barkindo, the market is close to balance, and increasing production of “black gold” by 2 million barrels per day since August of this year is absolutely justified.
“the Demand for oil recovered, and production in the US is shrinking, which enables OPEC members to adjust the parameters of the deal,” said analyst UK “the alpha-the Capital” Artem Kopylov. In his opinion, the decision of OPEC to increase production is aimed at reducing volatility in the market and is perceived by investors positively. But the potential for further growth in oil prices reduces, therefore, to the end of the year the price will fluctuate between the levels of 45-50 dollars per barrel, said Kopylov.
While the strongest impetus for the growth of oil prices, albeit for a short period, was the news about the positive results of tests of a vaccine against coronavirus. After the quotations reached $ 44. But soon even came to the rescue information on the harmonization of support measures, the European economy has not helped the prices to overcome the barrier of $ 45 per barrel.