What will happen to the ruble in March

If the situation starts to change for the better, the decline in economic activity will contribute to the cautious attitude of investors to risky assets, which means a further weakening of the Russian currency, says the head of strategic analysis and modeling of the SMP-Bank Vladimir Fedotov.

in addition, an important event in March will be the meeting of OPEC countries+ where cartel members are planning to develop solutions to support oil prices. The recovery of the cost of a barrel will be able to support ruble, says Fedotov.

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Internal factors in March – in favour of seasonal weakness of the ruble (reduced energy demand after the winter peak, which worsens the trade balance) indicates the head of Department of currency transactions of MTS-Bank Oleg Kochetkov. If the situation with coronavirus deteriorates, the ruble may significantly decline due to the cumulative effect of internal and external factors, he admits. The effect of the virus on the world economy is unpredictable: the market participants to regularly revise the forecasts to the downside, emphasizes the analyst.

According to the forecast Pomytkina, the overall correction in the market should be temporary, and during this period, the ruble would be subject to pressure. So the short-term, the Russian currency may drop to 67 rubles to the dollar, does not exclude it. In General, during March you can expect the range of 64 to 67 rubles per dollar, says analyst. In extremely negative scenarios of the spread of coronavirus goals can be significantly higher, adds Kochetkov.