the background of an imbalance of supply and demand in the second half of may we can expect the stabilization of Brent crude oil in the range of $ 20-25 per barrel, predicted the chief analyst “Promsvyazbank” Bogdan Zvarich. The situation with the spread of the coronavirus and the weakening or abolition of quarantine measures around the world will determine the propensity of investors to buy risky assets, which include emerging-market currencies, including the ruble, he said. If the output of quarantines will be accompanied by a new sharp bursts of morbidity, risk appetite in the markets could deteriorate, stress the analysts of “Nordea-Bank” Grigory Zhirnov and Tatiana Evdokimova.
At the same time support the ruble will continue to provide internal factors. “Here you can select currency sales by the Bank of Russia and the interest of foreign investors in Russian bonds, which is currently rising on the expectation of further rate cuts, the Central Bank,” said Zvarych.
Given these factors, in the coming weeks we can expect the pair dollar/ruble in a wide range of 70-80 rubles, with the attraction to mid to late may, predicts analyst. In this case, the market will continue higher volatility, which is determined by the rather sharp reaction of the players on the coming news, he adds.