The coronavirus can mutate and become less dangerous, or it will win with quarantine or neutralize subsequently created a vaccine, said an epidemiologist from the University of Chicago Sarah Kobe. Its three scenarios for the possible outcomes of a pandemic, published in the journal Scientific American.
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Version possible mutations COVID-19 based on the experience of epidemiologists, who fought with the spread of Spanish flu in 1918. Dangerous disease subsequently turned into the flu. Kobe does not exclude that the coronavirus can suffer the same fate.
To fully cope with the spread of the infection can help careful epidemiological monitoring of the situation, the expert believes. In practice, there are examples of successful curbing of the epidemic through effective restrictive measures: for example, in 2002, managed to contain the spread of SARS around the world due to the quarantine.
Finally, COVID-19 will be stopped when scientists will develop a vaccine against it, as it was with the second wave of swine flu in 2009. Thanks to massive vaccination campaigns failed to prevent repeated epidemics.
Kobe said that the effectiveness in the fight against coronavirus infection half depends on the operational actions of the authorities and the faithful observance of people of the restrictions.
“the Other 50 percent of success have to give a science”, – said the epidemiologist.
