the Bank of Russia reduced the key rate since last summer at six meetings in a row prior to the current 6% per annum. Last time he dropped it in early February and signaled then that can continue the process. But since then the situation has changed dramatically – all the world markets entered a zone of turbulence due to the spread of the planet of the coronavirus and the collapse of the deal, OPEC+, triggering a sharp fall in oil prices. The Russian market on this background, was no exception, despite the absence of a full-fledged panic. If at the time of the February meeting of the Central Bank, the dollar cost 64 rubles, now his course left for 70 rubles.
Collectors began to use new forms of pressure on people
Typically, banks adjust their policy rates following the Central Bank decision on key rate. Now given the unstable market, it’s different. If the Central Bank will announce on Friday that it is maintaining the key rate (this is the most likely scenario), it is still a high probability of increasing interest rates on deposits and loans on the horizon one to two months, says Director-head of Bank ratings Agency NKR Mikhail Doronkin. In his opinion, the increase in rates to a greater extent will affect car loans and mortgages, less consumer credits for short terms. Previously, banks were laying in their interest rate policy projections for further reduction of the key rate, now the situation has changed, explains investstrategii “BKS the Prime Minister” Alexander Bakhtin. According to Doronkina, the growth rates of temperate – a maximum of 1%.
If the Central Bank decides to raise its key interest rate (this can not be excluded – not in March so in April), the rates will grow more serious. So, the average rate on deposits may return to 6-7% (they are barely above 5%), and average interest rates on mortgages will rise to 9-9,8% by the end of the year (February was 8,84%), predicts Bakhtin. Average rates on consumer credits can be in such a scenario of 13.5-14.5 per cent, he adds.
What will make a key interest rate, the Bank of Russia
the Most important thing that you need to do to investors in such a situation, it is not to take any action and decisions under the influence of emotions, says Bakhtin. Do not try in the moment to change currency of the Deposit, especially if it is necessary to close the Deposit prematurely.
as for the borrowers, if in any case you planned to obtain the credit on the really important goals, it may make sense not to wait – likely that in the future the rates will go up. “But if you can do without the loan, it is better not to take, in principle, in conditions of turbulence the best option savings strategy,” says the analyst.
When the Central Bank promised to continue to reduce the key rate, the dollar cost 64 rubles. Now more than 70 rubles, and the reduction in the rate would probably stay.