The next elections will be the Council of States belonging to shake. Almost half of the 46 members of the Council not to occur in October. At the same time, prominent representatives from the national Council to seek a change to the Stöckli. Now a survey from the University of Zurich, who has a good chance to make it in the fall of the race – and for whom it is closely.

In the three cantons of shifts of Seats to other parties suggest In Basel-land the Green national councillor Maya Graf (57) currently has the better cards than your colleague from the Council, Eric Nussbaumer (59), to defend for the SP the residence of the transferor Claude Janiak (70). In the Canton of Schwyz is the SVP hard to keep their dual representation, following the resignation of Peter hair dryer (66). And in Ticino, the Lega afflicted with the veteran CVP-representatives Filippo Lombardi (63). A seat displacement to the South of the Gotthard spent in the area of what is possible, writes the Zurich Professor Oliver Strijbis in a post yesterday, which was published on the platform, de facto. De facto is supported by several Swiss universities. Compared to Sunday view Oliver Strijbis explains the possible Surprise in the Südkanton: “In Ticino, the Lega is strong. It is supported now by the SVP, the Northern League might have a chance to win the seat of Lombardi.”

wormwood benefited from weak competition

His conclusions political scientist Strijbis is based on a forecast of the market, the the University of Zurich is currently by. Simply put, to be completed in betting on the outcome of the elections, and the probabilities for each possible choice of outputs is calculated (see Box). This method will deliver at the polls, and in the prediction of voters ‘ interests to make accurate predictions, so Strijbis. This year, he applies the method for the first time in the Council of States. Seen suggest to all 46 seats, no rough shifts among the parties. In some duels, but surprised is exactly this stability. For example, in Aargau, to occupy where both seats are new. There forecast market currently applies pursuant to an election of the liberals Thierry Burkart (43) and of the SP national Council of Cédric Wermuth (33) the most likely scenario. The SP in this very bourgeois Canton with Pascale Bruderer (42) for eight years a Councillor of state. However, she is a representative of the moderate wing. Quite differently, the former Juso-in-chief of wormwood – he is a figurehead of the party’s left wing.

SVP makes negative headlines

to Succeed him, the choice would prevail, for once, not a “eingemitteter” candidate of a Polpartei in major zwahlen. In fact, not be explained Wermuths strength from the weakness of the competition: The Aargau SVP, by far the strongest force in the Canton, has been months of negative headlines.Quite small, in turn, the chances of Roger Köppel (54, SVP) on a change in the Council of States are: The probability of a re-election of the two Previous Daniel Jositsch (54, SP) and Ruedi Noser (58, FDP) currently stands at about 80 percent.