The presidents of Russia and Belarus on 30 June, will hold the next meeting — already the second for last two weeks. The formal reason for the visit of Lukashenka in Russia — the opening ceremony of the monument to Soviet soldiers near Rzhev. However, the rhetoric of the Belarusian leader on the upcoming presidential elections shows that the plans of the leaders, in addition to social events, broad agenda, both political and economic. And apparently, the light of the negotiations will not be.
Sudden the election campaign in Belarus, where Lukashenka has suddenly appeared real competitors in the struggle for the presidency was forced to go to Minsk closer to Moscow. However, for the scheduled June 30 meeting leaders of Belarus and Russia the Belarusian head of the newly toughened rhetoric.
Speaking at a closed meeting with activists of the Minsk region, Lukashenka a significant portion of his speech dedicated to relations with the Kremlin, stressing that Belarus remained the only ally of Russia.
of Course, they [the Russian authorities] do not want to lose Belarus and economically, but especially politically. [It] will be a severe blow to the internal politics of Russia, — he said.
As noted in conversation with NEWS.ru Belarusian political analyst Alexey Jerman, Lukashenka’s words reflect the reality of bilateral relations, and we can talk about interdependence.
Alexey Jerman Belarusian political analyst: the So-called “Belarusian balcony”, of course, is strategically important for Russia in terms of hostile attitude of countries like Poland, Ukraine and others. In addition, our States are in a single information space, so certain events are reflected in the media affect the minds of both Russians and Belarusians.
According to the analyst, the upcoming negotiations Lukashenko will affect not only the issues of the Union state, but also the problems associated with the elections, in particular, the situation around Victor Babariko, which many in Belarus believe almost a creature of the Kremlin.
the Question is, how the actions of the presidential candidate agreed with his Moscow patrons and senior management. In my opinion, this situation is contrary to allied relations, and, of course, the President will discuss this concludes Jerman.
Belarusian political analyst Pavel Usov, in turn, said that Belarus very much depends on Russia and its influence, and the Lukashenka regime is largely the result of this influence.
Pavel Usov, Belarusian political analyst: In 1996, after a referendum in Belarus that Moscow has ensured the preservation of power in the hands of the President. In return, Lukashenko ensured strategic and geopolitical presence of Russia in the Republic, making from the country element of the “Russian world”. Everything was perfect, until Russia started to implement expansionist policies, threatening the personal power of Lukashenka. At the moment, all the efforts of the Minsk — conditional move to the West (or rather, simulated), demarches and criticisms of the Kremlin — are that to force Russia to return to the relationship until 2014, in fact — to integration without integration.
In this regard, Lukashenko seeks, on the one hand to demonstrate loyalty to the allied obligations, with another — scare, that the political changes in the country can be undesirable for Russia. However, the analyst says, Moscow best of any scenario in Belarus. If you stay Lukashenko, the country will continue to drift in the direction of Russia — Belarus President after the election will be weak as ever, and he will have to make concessions. In the case of the coming to power of another candidate, for example, Babariko, interstate relations are unlikely to radically change, because the electorate is mostly Pro-Russian. But, of course, Moscow rather uses polls to influence Lukashenko, concludes a Mustache.