Living in Russia is getting worse and harder. At the end of II quarter of 2020 the domestic economy fell by almost 10%. This is a record falling incomes over the past three decades: more serious than the lives of Russians worsened only in 1992 after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and in 1998 in the Wake of default. However, if you already experienced the vicissitudes of the past and almost forgotten, the current economic circumstances may bring in the history of Russia the most unforgettable, and unpleasant resonance effects.
the Sad prospects of the domestic economy presented in the review of economic development “Pattern of business activity”. At the end of II quarter, the Russian economy fell by 9.6%. All because of the restriction of the production activity — if the first three months of the year the country was still trying to gain momentum, and growth is projected at 1-2%, starting in the spring of of the financial downturn it was impossible to avoid: in April, the economy has collapsed by 12% in may — almost 11% in June to 6.4%. The main cause of the collapse on the surface: economic activity, in fact, was stopped by the pandemic and regime isolation. Although previously the Minister of economic development Maxim Reshetnikov argued that in the second half of the year predicted a slight “bounce” to pay off record levels not: according to Ministry estimates, in the third quarter Russian GDP will miss the 6.3% in the fourth quarter will fall by another 5.2%.
“it Should be noted that such a tragic for the domestic economy history was observed more than a quarter century ago, — says doctor of Economics Igor Nikolaev. After the demise of the Soviet Union, in 1992 the domestic GDP immediately fell 14.5%. Another significant period when the Russian economy fell hopeless and decisively, we observed in 2008-2009. The collapse was due to global financial problems, only partly linked to the Russian economic reality. Now, in fact, we step on their own rake”, — the expert believes.
In 1998, resembles the head of IAC “Alpari” Alexander Razuvayev, the fall in GDP amounted to 5.35%, but in 1999 there was a growth of 6.35%. “The recovery was easy. Affected last devaluation of the ruble and strong underutilization of fixed assets. To increase production there was no need to invest serious investment. However, now the situation is different. If the second wave of the pandemic, the new failure will be deeper the first.”
According to Nikolaev, when confronted with previous crises, the Russian economy had a certain potential, relying on which it was possible to recover in the most rapid time periods. Currently, the main unfortunate mA��guide is the reduction of demand from the consumer sector, which declined on average by 30%. “Previously people have saved money in “stockings”, now such savings are simply not there,” — said the economist.
“For the time of isolation, the entertainment industry had lost 70-80%. The restaurant business has suffered losses from 60% to 100%, the construction sector, depending on the region and type of building, lost 20% to 60%. The business of transportation recorded a decline of 30%. The Russian economy as a whole dipped by 20-25% compared to the same period last year”, — said Sergey Drozdov, the analyst CC “Finam”. According to him, the older generation, who survived the crises of the 90s, kept funds in the future. Currently, young money is not saving, as he understands that part of the savings will be almost immediately if followed by a second blow coronavirus OS all the consequences: falling incomes, loss of wages, termination of employment.
In such a situation, economists are already beginning to advise “live from his garden”. “Russia will face a serious collapse of the economy — 10% of GDP by the end of this year our country is secured. Oil risks to fall to $35, and the dollar to fly to 80 rubles. The Russians will again have to rely only on themselves”, — considers Nikolaev.
