Specially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta Mikhail Kogan, head of Department of analytical researches “Higher school of financial management”, told about the reasons of the weak ruble and how it is likely to fall in August.
Michael, what was the cause of this sudden weakness of the ruble? Sanctions against North stream-2? The price of oil was stable.
Michael Kogan: There are a lot of factors came together. Deteriorated balance of payments, because with the opening up of the economy and partly borders there was a demand for the currency. Decreased Central Bank’s key rate to 4.25 percent per annum.
the Bank of Russia is almost exhausted “reserve” in the policy. And the expected decrease of 0.25 percent in September, already looks not so attractive for foreign investors, as it was in the spring before the regulator began an aggressive reduction of interest rates.
in addition, recently non-residents have to consider sanctions risks. In particular, the restrictive measures against participants of the “Nord stream – 2”. In addition, in the US Democrat candidate Joe Biden, though by a small margin, but went ahead of trump in the presidential campaign. And he promised to increase pressure on Russia if elected.
the Consequences of these actions can be felt for the next week, and counterweight no.
How, in your opinion, in such circumstances, will begin a new trading week for the ruble?
Michael Kogan: on Monday the whole world will be turned over data on manufacturing activity, including estimates for China, the Eurozone and the US. However, the ruble can only rely on the influence of technical factors that may work in that case, if the resident is already fully converted dividends into foreign currency.
If you implement this hypothesis, the ruble will be able to partially right himself, especially against the Euro. After reaching 88 rubles a possible pullback to 85,50-86 rubles in the week. On the dollar to 73 rubles. The beginning of this movement can be expected on Monday, although it is possible that the start day will be held under the slogan “dodavit all the optimists finally”.
August can bring us new highs of Euro and dollar?
Michael Kogan: Yes. After the alleged corrective wave, we can expect upward movement in interest rates, in which the maximums shown in the outcome of this week can be surpassed.
So, the Euro may try to go above 88 rubles (according to the Central Bank of Russia, these indicators observed for the last time in February 2016). And the dollar to go higher against the Euro growth with the benchmark in 77 rubles (figures of end of March 2020).
And no chance to strengthen the ruble would not?
Michael Kogan: Fundamentally, the ruble, of course, looks vulnerable. But technical��Cesky oversold leaves the chances of stabilizing the situation on the horizon a week or two. Non-residents may refrain from active purchases of OFZ due to the prospects of imposing sanctions.
oil Prices will support the ruble?
Michael Kogan: oil Prices will be difficult to continue postavenie the recovery amid the threat of energy demand. Possible economic constraints due to the growth of infected.
Finally, can worsen moods in the foreign markets as you get closer to the election of the President of the United States. They may become a significant stress in case of victory of Joe Biden (because of his different attitude to the business).
Also of concern is the trajectory of relations between the U.S. and China, which are unlikely to improve in the near future, but it could be worse.