So says Michael Kogan, head of Department of analytical researches “Higher school of financial management”. Especially for “the Russian newspaper” he has predicted, like the end of summer will behave the ruble, and how badly hurt the dollar, an explosion in Beirut.
In late July, many experts said that August is traditionally a bad month for the ruble. And today will be no exception. As far as I know, you, Michael, for a second opinion?
Michael Kogan: the Events of the first week of August, has preserved the chances that the last month of summer this year may not be as dark as it was in years past.
well, it is Partly due to the fact that the national currency has depreciated by 9.5 percent against the Euro and 4.5 percent against the dollar. This will curb the aggression of the sellers.
Also it is possible to change the situation on the domestic debt market, which will support the ruble. This week the Ministry of Finance decided to increase premiums placed OFZ, which led to the return of customers.
the Agency attracted the highest for the last 1.5 months 93.6 billion roubles. To carry out the plan (one trillion in the third quarter to cover the budget deficit), for the next eight auctions is required to raise at 85,1 billion. Thus market participants can count on the generosity of the Ministry of Finance in the future.
there is Great probability that these calculations are justified?
Michael Kogan: Bet on the growth OFZ don’t look so foolish undertaking. Published this week the report of the Central Bank on monetary policy signaled that the September lowered its key rate by 0.25 per cent, the regulator may not be limited.
most Importantly, in the global financial markets remained high appetite for risk, and talk of sanctions has faded into the background.
this is just the hard part!
Michael Kogan: However, it cannot be excluded at the time of both. After an encouraging employment report in the US in July, optimists have good incentives to purchase.
recall that the unemployment rate in the States dropped from 11.1 to 10.2 percent, and the number of jobs increased by 1,763 million. Both figures were better than expected.
in addition to the stalled negotiations in Congress over the adoption of the third package of incentives valued at one trillion dollars, according to participants, there has been progress. And negotiations can be resolved in the coming week.
Further improvement of the situation on the energy market and the non-resident interest OFZs during the implementation of this scenario can at least keep the ruble at current levels.
And an explosion in the port of Beirut, it can really affect the situation with the currencies? The first day on these the news, the dollar sank.
Michael Kogan: Explosion in the port of the capital of Lebanon, despite the shocking images worthy of the best Hollywood movies, has not caused a wide resonance in the market.
After analysis, it became apparent that this was not a terrorist act but the criminal connivance of responsible persons. From global investors, is no cause for concern, especially given the negligible effect of the middle Eastern country on the world economy because of its plight. But many financial media could use this theme to raise the ratings.
Meanwhile, growth in oil prices on this day were due to staff from Lebanon, and the elimination of accumulated short positions after the consolidation period. One way or another, but still would find a way out with relatively positive sentiment in the markets. No matter how it seemed strange.
By the way, at the end of the week quotes “black gold” has returned to the levels prior to the events in Lebanon. But technically in a short time they are able to update pochkovidnye highs, that would not require any explosion, the repetition of which, of course, would not want to see the reality.
I have the ruble good prospects?
Michael Kogan: Despite the persistence of preconditions for a “window of opportunity” for the ruble, its medium-term prospects are unenviable.
And not only in the “second wave” COVID-19. She, according to the preparations of the government, updates, treatment protocols and successes in vaccine development and epidemiological situation, if it comes, with high chances will not lead to repeated economic constraints.
the Reason probably is based in the dynamics of relations between the US and China that can turn into a real confrontation, but also in the upcoming presidential election in the United States. The victory of Democrat Joe Biden can be a catalyst for the deterioration of global sentiment in the global markets because of its willingness to review preferences for business introduced by trump. For Russia it’s a double whammy, because in this case we can expect increased sanctions pressure, which can affect debt in rubles.
So the prospect of a mass dumping of OFZ will prevail over the ruble until November 3, and then – depending on the outcome of the election.
Michael Kogan: as for COVID-19, the effect will be more indirect. The slowdown in the global economy in this case can cause the pressure via the price of oil.
However, due to the OPEC agreement+ about the limitations of production from the repetition of the rate of decline observed in February-March with similar movements in the ruble is unlikely.
However, due to the reduction of Russian energy exports paymenttion balance sheet this year has deteriorated. It makes the ruble more vulnerable to deterioration in the attitude of foreign investors that hold 34,76% Russian government bonds, and stocks and bonds of banks and corporations.