Yuri, unlike many European countries the immigration process are under very strict control. And, according to the police report, the upsurge of migrant or ethnic crime is not observed. Especially now, in the context of a pandemic, increased border controls, restrictions on entry and exit. Then how anxious waiting? And, by the way, how many in our country foreign guests?
Yuri Zhdanov: According to estimates on January 1, 2019 on the territory of Russia were 9.7 million foreign citizens.
compared with the same period last year their number increased by 419,1 thousand people. Of these, only 2.5 million people officially registered labor migrants. Illegal immigrants in 2018 was approximately 2 million.
Unlikely this year they became smaller. Agree, it is better to analyze the situation and to prevent trouble, than to extinguish the raging fire.
reason for the alarm still there?
Yuri Zhdanov: I Suppose, Yes. Closing quarantined cities where the virus was found, the isolation of the vast number of citizens of almost all countries of the world turned into a global trend isolation for entire countries. Since the abolition of aircraft and ground passenger transportation, States severely limit the right to free movement, which negatively affects the movement of goods, services, capital and labour.
the Shocks of the pandemic and antiasteniceski measures fundamentally changed the existence of migrants of all types. Many migrants put in a difficult position waiting for the end with uncertain prospects of return from temporarily closed borders, unemployment in the countries from which they came, the unsettled legal procedures. In addition, for migrants rapidly shrinking access to the Russian labour market.
Coronavirus a pandemic has radically changed the longstanding socio-economic structure of Russian society, represents an unprecedented “fuse”, which has immediately provoked the crisis phenomena in the economy, greatly increased social tensions and it is expected for the specialists set off a chain reaction of a worsening socio-economic situation in the country. This, in combination can “detonate” the explosion of crime, especially among migrants.
what would that entail?
Yuri Zhdanov: Well, obviously – initially may increase household and street crime. In connection with the closing of borders and international air links, a significant part of labour migrants from CIS countries for a long time can not return home. Obviously, in terms of closures, lack of work, it is impossibleSTI housing and meeting the basic needs of the great mass of labor migrants will seek every opportunity of extraction of livelihood, including illegal means. Now social networks and online media spread information that shows the attacks, street robberies committed by groups of migrants around supermarkets with the purpose of selecting citizens of bags with food and necessities. That combined with a lack of social support allows technicians to predict “criminality” and the threat of ethnic conflicts. Statistical data of the Main information-analytical center of the Ministry of internal Affairs of Russia for January-April of this year illustrate that in the public areas was 201 thousand crimes.
But this is not so much. Compared to the same period last year, even less at 6.6 percent.
Yuri Zhdanov: However, in conditions of deepening economic crisis, we should expect growth of crimes of this category. In the first quarter “migration contribution” to the overall structure of crime affecting the state of law and order in the country, estimated at least 120 thousands of crimes and offenses. However, note that each such crime is of resonance character and significantly increased the level of social tension.
And this happens in conditions of high competition on the labour market between the Russians and arrived migrant workers. The result dramatically increases the level of ethnic tensions.
Is research analyst?
Yuri Zhdanov: are, and they Are not encouraging. Federal Agency for the Affairs of nationalities (FADH) in early April, had informed regional leaders about a possible worsening of the situation of labour migrants who found themselves in difficult circumstances after the introduction of restrictive measures for the fight against the epidemic of coronavirus. Many experts fear the rise in crime among migrant workers who lose their jobs in the cities, and gain a return of xenophobia on the part of indigenous residents. There are “prerequisites for the aggravation of the situation” with the participation of foreigners in the fight against the pandemic. Despite the isolation, fixed the “active household contact” between migrants in places of their compact residence, observed their accumulation in the international airports to return home and, on the contrary, at the immigration centres for the extension of stay in the Russian Federation. In social networks spread offensive reviews in relation to visitors from China and other Asian countries and fake publications about the conflicts with participation of immigrants. All this can not leaveto live.
What experts recommend?
Yuri Zhdanov: the Regional authorities are recommended to strengthen control over the situation in places of compact residence of migrants in the form of continuous monitoring, to conduct discussions on the prevention of ethnic conflict and to take measures “to prevent the spread of false national and religious oriented information”. And it is already running.
Emerging in March, i.e. during the period of closure and the beginning of the mode of isolation, the crime rate of migrants 2.2 percent, compared with the same period of 2019, in April gave way to negative dynamics – by 1.2 percent, which reveals that the high level of organization of the law enforcement bodies of internal Affairs.
confirmed This in an interview to “Rossiyskaya Gazeta” Deputy Secretary of the security Council of the Russian Federation A. N. Grebenkin, noting that “law enforcement agencies failed to prevent the growth of crime in the sphere of migration”. Traditionally among migrants the most criminal active citizens of the States participants of the CIS, their share in January-March amounted to 89.3% and increased slightly as of January-April, up 89.7 percent. The proportion of migrants from the States – participants of the CIS who have committed crimes on the territory of Moscow amounts to 93.9 percent – 1885 people. Comparative analysis of statistical data on the crime status of migrants and the number of administrative offences committed by foreign citizens and persons without citizenship, showed that the ratio of crimes and administrative offences averages 1:10. That is one thousand of crimes committed by migrants have an average of not less than 10 thousand administrative offences.
But migrants themselves become victims of crime?
Yuri Zhdanov: And more often than before. In January-April increased the number of criminal attacks committed against foreign citizens and persons without citizenship, to 5163 – 0.8 percent. A third of them – 1547 crimes were committed in Moscow. This is the result of a high density concentration of migrants, and indirectly indicates a high degree of ethnic tensions in the capital. This suggests that the crime situation at any time may withdraw from the status of stability there is the concept of “criminal plateau”. And this will immediately affect the absolute increase of crime.
What scientists say? There are predictions?
Yuri Zhdanov: Leading experts of the Russian Academy of Sciences there are two main – optimistic and pessimistic – of variaNTA forecast, based on the fact that Russia fits into the majority of global trends. In the framework of the EEU, the development of partnerships in the short term will become more pragmatic, if not rigid forms, but migration flows are not reduced – they will change your format. There will be more shady relations, will be less respected human rights and standards of labour protection, will increase human trafficking. Because the negative consequences of such changes is difficult to assess, in Russia in the medium term is 3 to 4 years, you can expect the following scenarios is directly dependent on socio-economic measures undertaken by the government in the short term.
Let’s first talking about the optimistic scenario.
Yuri Zhdanov: the Optimistic scenario, according to experts, the probable, if, after the expiration of the restrictive measures, the government will actively support the demand of purchasing power, “infusing” money into the economy. The demand for migrant labour, both skilled and unskilled, gradually increasing, and in the medium term, migrant workers, left in shadow employment directly after completion of the restrictive measures, as well as temporarily going home, have more opportunities for legal work. Continued liberalization of immigration laws, and stimulating legal employment of labour migrants. Will be given considerable attention to the inflow of skilled labor and reduce the “brain drain”. Such a scenario involves restoring the migration flow unabated in the short period and a gradual increase in the medium term.
That is, back to dependenices state. And then what’s the pessimistic scenario?
Yuri Zhdanov: Under the pessimistic scenario, Russia’s economy will recover slowly, effective demand falls, the level of real unemployment will increase. Jobs in the traditionally migrant niches of the economy will go into the “shadow zone,” corruption around the migration will not be reduced or expanded in scope and entrenched, hampering the work of state mechanisms of management of migration system. Business owners, particularly small ones, prefer to use informal mechanisms for the recruitment of labour migrants. Over-exploitation of migrants will continue or increase. Non-payment of wages and other elements of trafficking are poorly repressed and is getting more widespread. There is a partial reorientation of the most skilled foreign labor, including those from Central Asia, on other labour markets. The liberalization of immigration laws slow down. Such a scenario involves restoring the migration flow in the next 1-3 years. The implementation of each of these two scenarios depends on the socio-economic situation in the country and the stability and political development, but currently seems most likely the second scenario is pessimistic.
How will this affect the crime situation?
Yuri Zhdanov: Here, too, there are forecasts of wounds.
Most large-scale adverse trends will emerge in such areas or types of crime, such as cybercrime, crimes in the economic sphere, the raider seizure of objects small and large businesses, organization of illegal migration, human trafficking and criminal exploitation of people, terrorism and extremism, drug trafficking.
it is Expected the growth of street crime, mostly selfish and violent attacks, robberies and robberies.
How to resist?
Yuri Zhdanov: Strengthening police and other law enforcement agencies, especially the operational work is – for granted. But, apparently, necessary, and non-standard measures. Experts propose to establish an interagency working group, “migration center”, to coordinate measures of migration security and operational monitoring of the migration situation, enforcement of control over migrants in a socially vulnerable position. It is necessary for the implementation of the constant media dialogue, exchange of views, working contacts with the representatives and the leaders of the migrant communities, religious leaders, raising awareness and legal awareness of migrants. It will be possible to develop a compromise solution for a timely pre-emptive suppression of acts of provocation on the part of migrants and the prevention of riots or emergency protests of migrants.
will Probably require some legal decisions?
Yuri Zhdanov: are encouraged to officially declare a legal Amnesty for migrants in an irregular or semi-legal status, for the purpose of mass withdrawal of “illegal immigrants” out of the shadows and their state registration. Of course, if they have not committed a crime. As additional measures of incentives for socio-legal legalization of migrants is to ensure that measures of social support, including employment, at least temporary medical help.
whether measures of individual control over each worker?
Yuri Zhdanov: Is an interesting idea – the creation of an automated system that determines the “scale of confidence” to the migrant in points. To establish the social ranking of a migrant is offered Pradosviewed the creation of a digital profile of the migrant, contains the most complete information regarding their socio-legal status of biometric data, including information about the absence of dangerous infectious diseases, socio-criminological characteristics of criminal legal dossiers on previously committed crimes, administrative offences, the propensity to destructive behavior.
Sounds fantastic. Where to store this file? How you can quickly look, for example, a patrol stopped a man on the street?
Yuri Zhdanov: the Workers will offer to install for phone or smartphone mobile application “migrant”, attached to the digital profile of the migrant, which contains all socially relevant characteristics. The refusal from the establishment of the mobile application automatically reduces the ranking of social trust of the migrant. This will allow for remote control, interval observation period which will be subject to the social ranking of migrants, categorize them by groups, depending on socio-legal status.
still, it’s hard to follow, each in the phone does not look. Someone will be completely indifferent to this “scale of confidence”.
Yuri Zhdanov: some people but not for everyone. Because of this “scale” will depend on legitimate income, the ability to obtain and renew licenses and residence permits. But, more importantly, a certain category of migrants will be obliged to install a mobile application forcibly.
This applies to all foreigners who have committed administrative offences or crimes under the administrative supervision are prone to commit dangerous attacks or other actions that endanger the security of the Russian Federation located on the territory of Russia with infringement of the established order of stay and avoiding the legalization procedure, settlement of their social and legal status. And this is the real control of potential violators of the law.
