Frank Plasberg’s grim conclusion: the war will last for many more months, it is too early for negotiations and thousands will die. From Norbert Röttgen’s point of view, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is simply continuing the SPD’s wrong Russia policy from the past, is also to blame for this.
Matthias Schranner is a German administrative lawyer. His language is dry and concise. That makes his expertise as a Munich negotiation expert even more brutal. “I don’t think there will be negotiations,” says Schranner. In his opinion, Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy will not sit at the negotiating table and debate the fate of Ukraine.
“Either there will be a military coup or the war will take hold,” he says. That means: either Putin will be evicted or there will be thousands more dead in brutal trench warfare. Schranner describes a drastic scenario: “Russia can become the new North Korea. Completely impoverished and totally isolated.”
Negotiation expert Schranner also believes that it is hardly possible for French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to act as mediators between the two warring parties. Good and accepted mediators should have no self-interest.
In addition, negotiations that would start now would inevitably fail. “The mediation mode is currently too early”. Negotiations would only be an option if both Ukraine and Russia believed that the war could no longer be won militarily. In addition, diplomatic groups from both countries are currently under discussion – albeit at the lowest level.
Countries like Germany can fundamentally influence the course of the war and thus the strength of the Ukrainian negotiating position by supplying weapons. On this point, Frank Plasberg’s group is not very different. “If we don’t deliver weapons, Ukraine will be overrun,” warns military expert Claudia Major from the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik in Berlin. “Russia has no interest in negotiations. It’s about power, ideology and violence.”
For Russia, Ukraine is simply Russian territory and, moreover, you cannot rely on Russia anyway. “Russia shoots everything flat and then advances slowly.” Meaning: Ukraine needs anti-aircraft defense, artillery, armored vehicles and tanks. From Germany too.
According to CDU member of the Bundestag Norbert Röttgen, the fact that arms deliveries from Germany have so far been so sparse is due to Chancellor Scholz. “The delivery of heavy weapons by the federal government is not desired,” says Röttgen. “The guns are there. It is clear that nothing has been delivered. Nothing is simply screwed up.” There is a real “chronology of excuses”.
It was “will that it should not take place”. However, the reason for this is not communicated. “I can only assume that it is basically the old SPD policy.” According to the motto: “We must always be able to continue talking to Russia. Russia is more important than Ukraine.”
CDU politician Röttgen also has no sympathy for French President Macron, who says that Russia should “not be humiliated”. “It’s completely wrong.” It’s a strange thing to worry about the humiliation of a country waging a “brutal war of aggression.” “That’s probably even beyond Putin’s imagination.”
In addition, Russia aims to ensure that we Europeans are no longer interested in the war. The danger is that “our unity will crumble over time. “Getting used to the war plays Russia into the cards. Putin thinks we are effeminate and not holding out. It is therefore our task as politicians to continue to address the war.”
“We will get the weapons because this is a struggle for existence,” explains scientist Oleksandra Bienert bravely. Born in Ukraine, she came to Berlin in 2005 and is currently involved with refugees. “We will not give up any territory.” In the past 350 years, Russia has repeatedly tried to take over Ukraine. “But we have declared our independence six times. It remains the case: we will not give up our territory.”
It’s not just about the country, it’s about the people. Russia has now deported a million people, including 180,000 children. “This is our future!” Germany now has to learn from the Second World War, when it invaded Ukraine. “Germany must be Ukraine’s greatest friend. I expect that from Germany.”