Rosstat has the alarm industry for a second consecutive month falling by almost 10%. In may, she were missing for 9.6%, in June – by 9.4%. Such in this Millennium in Russia has not happened. Turns out the nineties with their continuous economic decline not so far as we on all sides say. Yet we are told that all the fault of the coronavirus. He, of course, tried as could. But can everything be blamed on the pandemic?
the signs of coronavirus are obvious, which is confirmed, in particular, the fact that the decline in industrial production is not exclusively Russian phenomenon. Moreover, compared to other countries, Russia does not look so bad. If we drop industry for the second quarter, which was the main impact of a pandemic (at least until there are no statistics of the third quarter), accounted for 8.5%, the USA – 14: Germany 29%, France, Italy and Spain — 35-45%. The consolation, of course, but still easier.
And who in Russia was an accomplice of the coronavirus in the collapse of the industry? Refer to the sectoral contribution to the decline in industrial production. It turns out that other vertical falling mining production. In June, mining and quarrying decreased by 14.2% by June 2019 and 3.1% by may 2020. Who is to blame? In the official explanations offered by the Rosstat and the Ministry of economic development which are shared, there is a wonderful gem: “the Main reason is the decline in oil production under the agreement, OPEC+, and a decline in demand for coal and non-metallic minerals”. It’s like reducing oil production under the OPEC quota+ is something separate from reduction of demand for oil. In fact, they suggest: it is OPEC+ is to blame for the decline of extractive industries, which, in turn, led to the reduction of total industrial production. By the way, according to the monitoring Committee most OPEC+ Russia belongs to the countries-to infringers of the adopted restrictions, but the Russian deviations from the obligations in time is insignificant.
But back to the tip. Is it worth it to believe? Faith, of course, it’s irrational, but it turns out that if OPEC restrictions+ was not, then the industry would show the best compared with today’s result. Is it really so? Oil would really be more obtained, but the results in the economy are measured in money, that is, it is necessary to take into account the price. What happens to oil prices, the lifting of restrictions on its production, we have repeatedly seen, the last time being in April 2020, when the price of a barrel for edification even dived into negative values. So, OPEC restrictions+ reduce oil production in kind and in monetary terms contribute, rather, to the growth of industrial production and overall GDP, than its decrease.
OPEC+, contrary to the position of Rosstat and Minecon��development, the role of the partner of the coronavirus does not pass. Who, then? The correct answer is the structure of domestic industrial production. In June, when we recall that the mining industry has declined as a result of falling demand for raw materials by 14.2%, manufacturing fell by 8.4%. To brag, of course, nothing, but if the share of manufacturing was higher, and the fall of the entire industry would not be as devastating. And the structure of industrial production coronavirus is not relevant, it is the responsibility of the economic policy.
Rosstat does not look into the future, but information suggests that the rapid recovery of the Russian industry does not occur. What are the forecasts? The latest forecast from the international comparisons, the same ones that allowed to be consoled after a minor industry statistics, gives EIU – analytical service of the Economist Group. According to this forecast the speed of recovery in developed countries will outstrip the regenerative processes in the developing world, which include Russia. The pre-crisis level in 2019, according to forecast of EIU, most of the G7 countries — USA, Canada, Germany and France — will return in 2022. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa “has lost almost ten years of growth” will remain in “recovery mode” until at least 2024.
Forecasts come true not as often as would like their authors, but recovery growth in Russia may be slower than views of the government. While it is evidenced by the data of Rosstat. So, the future may be a further drop in income, rising unemployment and other “gifts” from the 90s.
