Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Sergey Drozdov, an analyst CC “FINAM”, saw changes in the markets and gave a forecast on the movement of the Russian currency.
In recent days there has been some optimism on the trading floors, which partly contributes to the strengthening of the ruble, – says the expert. – The mood of global investors due to news about new progress in the development of vaccines against coronavirus and expectations of the next stimulus in Europe and the United States.
So, after long negotiations, the EU leaders failed to reach agreement on the recovery plan of the economy with 750 billion euros. And in the us Congress this week started debate on the new aid package the us economy volume of one trillion dollars.
in addition, support for the Russian currency have rising oil prices, which on Tuesday came close to around $ 45 per barrel. And the country’s oil Alliance expect partial stabilization of the world oil market in the second half and the growth of demand in 2021.
amid the increase of quotas for oil production since August, we can expect a gradual increase in the income of Russian oil companies that will support the ruble by converting foreign currency earnings.
this week the key event for the Russian currency there will be a meeting of the Bank of Russia. According to market participants, the office of Elvira Nabiullina may continue easing monetary policy. The main question is only, to what levels can be reduced the key interest rate.
Now suffered from coronavirus the Russian economy and still remaining below the target level of inflation, at its meeting on 24 July, the regulator can lower the rate by 25 to 50 basis points (from 0.25 to 0.5 percent – approx. Ed.). And such expectations, coupled with the mood on global financial and commodity markets at this stage support the ruble.
However, while to expect a strong strengthening of the Russian currency is not worth waiting. And its course, in the absence of both positive and negative factors in the medium term will remain in the range of 70-72,3 of the ruble against the U.S. dollar.
