the Bank of Russia, in addition to the announcement on support measures for banks, last week began selling foreign currency, without waiting for April to support the victim of the ruble. “The result is a fairly competent actions of the Central Bank exchange rate dynamics is quite acceptable trend and at an acceptable level,” – said the first Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov. However, according to him, Russia has now entered a new sustainable reality with oil prices near $ 35 a barrel (that is their current level). Possible bounce up (when it will be restored the agreement with OPEC) and down, says Belousov. But if events go according to the second embodiment, the oil won’t be long conditional cost $ 20 because it is not profitable nor exporters, or consumers of raw materials, said first Deputy Prime Minister.
terms of complete recovery of the foreign exchange market
the dollar / ruble exchange Rate soared to its peak to a maximum in 2016 – 75,66 of the ruble due to the fall in oil prices after OPEC break transaction+. However, at Friday’s auction, the situation turned around and the exchange rate managed to move closer to 72 rubles per dollar.
the Ruble grew at the end of the week in parallel with the Russian and world stock indices. Correctional growth on world markets after the failures of last week is a reaction to “throwing money from a helicopter”, carried out by global regulators to stem panic in the markets. So, pour their billions of dollars of cheap money to support the financial sustainability of the decided Federal reserve, European Central Bank and people’s Bank of China.
as soon As the price of oil will go up, following them will improve and the exchange rate of the ruble
While the consensus of the markets is focused on the scenario that the II and III quarter of this year will be weak, and recovering athe emergence of the global economic growth will start in the fourth quarter, which will allow to expect a return of oil prices to the level of 50 dollars per barrel by year-end, says chief economist at Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova.
According to the analyst of Goldman Sachs Clemens of the Graph, the exchange rate will follow changes in the price of Brent crude oil. He predicts that within six months the oil will cost 30 dollars per barrel, and then gradually return to 60. The ruble will be worth 61 per dollar in 2.5 years. At the level of 75 rubles to the dollar rate will last until the end of 2020, said the Count.
Matvienko: Low oil prices will not prevent the implementation of social obligations
the Planned growth of the Russian economy this year due to past events, according to Belousov, will not reach, but in the recession is also not slide. Later, the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov said that in any case, at current oil prices Russia has enough resources for six years to meet its budget expenditure commitments. According to Siluanov, despite the dynamics of the market, there is no reason to talk about any reduction of budget expenditures.
“If you collect in one place all negative for the ruble factors, put them in one box, it is written on the cover, the title will contain the word “uncertainty”. It is now the most negative impact on the ruble exchange rate”, – says the head of the Department of global studies “Opening Broker” Mikhail Shulgin. In particular, the market may not appreciate it, where now is a fair price range for oil that the Bank of Russia plans to make a key interest rate on March 20 and what other restrictive measures because of the coronavirus will take Russia and other countries, he enumerates.
According to Shulgin, the “pain threshold” of the course ruble for the Bank of Russia is closer to 80 rubles per unit of American currency. In the short term amid high uncertainty, we cannot exclude the testing of the Russian currency and the mark, he admits. “If that happens, it now appears that this will happen because of a deeper decline in oil prices, not because of the effect of the virus,” says Shulgin.
the oil market risks remain uncontrolled growth in supply from key oil producing countries, redistribution and dumping, but to return to the control of oil supply on the world market, there is still time and hope, said the head of analytical management of Bank “Zenit” Vladimir Evstifeev. The implementation of quarantine measures around the world reveals two questions: whether they will be effective enough for keeping the situation under control and how they affect economic activity. While investors don’t find the answers to these questions, the ruble remains at risk of turbulence, agrees Evstifeev.
the Ministry of Finance estimated the budget deficit at current oil prices
According to the chief of analytical Department of Bank “St.-Petersburg” Andrey Kadulina, in the medium term if the global markets stabiliziruemost, the most probable is the return at least to the rate of 72 rubles per dollar.
While the market is still strong panic, to predict short-term movement of the ruble is useless, emphasizes Evstifeev. If the price of oil 30-35-40 per barrel, the dollar should stay in the range 80-75-70 rubles, respectively, indicates the analyst. At a steady break down the oil level of 30 dollars per barrel, the course may be in the range of 80-90 rubles, because in this case strong will panic, which will determine toughening of monetary-credit policy of the Bank of Russia on the crisis scenario and the outflow of residents from the ruble debt, it does not rule.