Specially for Rossiyskaya Gazeta Mikhail Kogan, head of Department of analytical researches “Higher school of financial management”, assessed the prospects of the currency market and gave the forecast on Tuesday.
dollar exchange Rate exceeded 75 rubles
Today on the domestic currency market hardly will manage to avoid the approach of the ruble to lows of “black Monday”, when the level 77,50 of the ruble against the dollar and 86,55 of the ruble was fixed in the FOREX market on 9 March. In Russia at that time was the official holiday weekend.
This forecast becomes virtually inevitable on the background of what is happening in the oil market, where earlier in the week the energy market began to test the strength of the boundary in $ 30 for barrel Brent.
the Oil market continues to find a new foothold after dimmed expectations that Riyadh and Moscow will be able to establish the dialog and return to the negotiating table to further coordinate OPEC+. Despite statements by the Minister of oil of Iraq that Baghdad managed to extinguish the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the meeting of the monitoring Committee scheduled for March 18, will not take place.
In terms of the preconditions for the outbreak of a price war and the first signs of damage that actually caused the coronavirus in China’s economy (in January-February industrial output fell by 13.5 percent, retail sales up 20.5%) industry experts are beginning to believe that in 2020 the situation can develop even in a worst-case scenario in 2008-2009.
What threatens the world economy, the demand for oil
the plans of U.S. President Donald trump “to fill strategic storage” to the top, and it is about 77 million barrels per day, the market balance will not change qualitatively. On the background of the collapse of air travel, reduction in economic activity, the largest oil-producing countries are prepared to increase the offer in April.
Saudi Arabia threatens to increase oil production by 300 thousand barrels per day to 12.3 million barrels per day. And considers further increase production to 13 million barrels per day. About the same on the market can add oil from Russia. Plans to increase the production of hatching in Nigeria and Iraq.
Matvienko: Low oil prices will not prevent the implementation of social obligations
Against the ruble is composed and the disposition of the financial markets. Unprecedented measures have been taken by the us Federal reserve that Sunday for the second time went to emergency lowering of the key rate, bringing it to the range to 0-0. 25 percent before the meeting, 17-18 March. But all this failed to prolong the optimism seen before the weekend.
did Not improve the mood of even the willingness of the fed to start the asset purchase program at $ 700 billion in addition to the promised liquidity of 1.5 trillion via REPO auctions.
because Of the grim statistics, investment banks begin to worsen the forecasts for the economies of the US, the Eurozone and other countries where the epidemic is coronavirus is only beginning to gain momentum. It makes global investors to reduce their activity for all risky assets.