Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Sergey Drozdov, an analyst CC “FINAM” has analyzed the events of recent weeks and gave an optimistic forecast
– currently, the weakness of the ruble due to a combination of negative factors that, in fact, have created a perfect storm through which for several weeks is the Russian currency.
the Central Bank set the dollar on March 27 at the level of 78,72 ruble
the First is, of course, negative sentiment in global financial markets associated with the spread of coronavirus and too hard against it.
it is worth noting that with the end of 2019 in the domestic debt and stock markets came to a record amounts of foreign money, which now, with the rapidly deteriorating situation in hastily leave our “safe haven”. Investors sell assets and thereby create additional pressure on the ruble.
the Second, more significant factor is the strongest drop in oil prices, which, due to the failure of the transaction OPEC+ suddenly collapsed below the break-even of the Russian budget (42.5 percent).
However, despite the apparent hopelessness, the end of the tunnel already, a glimmer of light. The Russian currency, most likely, already passed the peak of its weakening, which was observed near the mark 82 rubles per dollar and 89.6 – per Euro.
Now the world governments and Central banks in a hurry to take emergency measures to rescue their economies. Pour into the markets huge amounts of money and provide liquidity to the real sector of the unprecedented aid packages.
the Price of Brent crude oil rose above $ 30 on the ICE futures exchange in London
In my view, fiscal and monetary stimulus launched the world’s largest Central banks soon able to stabilize the Financial markets and a positive impact on the ruble.
in Its course may strengthen to the levels of 68 to 72 to the dollar and the Euro 78-79.
on Friday, March 27, in connection with the announcement by President Vladimir Putin long vacation, the Bank of Russia shall set and publish the official exchange rates against the ruble, which will act on 6 April.
However, full-fledged work of currency section of the Moscow Exchange ruble to foreign currencies in exchange offices of banks will change to match the current trends.