with the Reason for the major sentiment is in force an agreement to reduce oil production by the OPEC countries, and the gradual restart of some of the world’s economies.
So, in the state of California, this Friday will open its doors flower, book, and sport shops. Italy started export-oriented companies, and in Germany the stores open and plan to resume sports activities.
in addition, support for oil prices have expectations of a sharp fall in production and aggressive closure of large speculative players betting on lower prices of “black gold”. At this stage in the US, many shale companies already declaring bankruptcy, and the rig count is falling rapidly.
And although the physical oil market traditionally lags behind the more speculative “paper” prices on it gradually go up. What, among other things, contribute to the actions of Saudi Arabia, seeking to maintain the depressed energy market.
So, according to Bloomberg, Saudi oil Corporation Saudi Aramco, as part of a new agreement on production cuts OPEC+ raised prices on most varieties in June for consumers in Asia, Europe and the United States. According to the Agency, with reference to the price list, the price increase is due to the reduction of the discount on oil supplies.
of Course, for a full balancing of the global oil market where demand for pandemic covid-19 imploded at times, still need a lot of time. However, now with the big share of confidence it is possible to say that the worst for the price of a barrel of oil is over. In the near future the price of the futures contract of Brent will be in the range 28-32 per barrel. In the worst case, the price may return to around $ 25 per barrel. The optimistic scenario in the medium term rise to 35 to 37 dollars per barrel.
For the Russian currency, under strict supervision of the Bank of Russia, which, though significantly reduced the volume of FX interventions, but continues to push back the profiteers, the improved situation on the oil market before the end of the week means the conservation of range 72,60-76 against the dollar.
Now about the more distant future. The world’s Central banks has created a favorable financial environment. This compels large foreign funds look for a more profitable story in the markets of the debt of developing countries. Especially given the incredibly low yields in reliable debt instruments, Old and New world. And although the ruble has played a big part already incurred losses, but extra profitable for non-residents now can not be called.
nevertheless, expectations of further reduction in the key interest rates Tank Russia (June 19) leaves a foreign playerm a space for continuing the carry-trade (a play on the difference in interest rates) and profit from the further strengthening of the ruble. And its rate in the coming months may be in the range 69 to 71 to the dollar. According to the Bank, the last time the dollar was below 70 rubles on 7 March 2020.
