Record decline of the US economy resulted in the weakening of the American currency on the world market. The Euro, however, have renewed a maximum of two years. Close to the historic high ($1980 per ounce) remain the gold price in the spot market, derivatives market contracts with the execution in December of this year, was trading above $2 thousand per ounce. The Russian currency is losing its positions against the Euro and against the dollar amid recovery of imports, as well as large-scale conversion of dividends.The American currency has renewed their multi-year lows. According to Reuters, the DXY index (dollar relative to six major world currencies) today reached 92,55 points — the lowest since may 14, 2018. The decrease compared with the previous day has made 0,5%, from the beginning of the month the American currency has weakened by 5%. The beneficiary of such dynamics is the European currency — the Euro reached a low of $1,908, a two-year high. However, other currencies (the pound sterling, the Japanese yen) has updated a maximum of only March 2020.The reason for the game on the depreciation of the dollar on the world currency market began on the eve of published data on the U.S. economy, says the analyst of “Finam” Sergey Drozdov. So, the country’s GDP in the second quarter declined at the fastest rate (32.9 percent) since the great depression, demonstrating a record in the history of observations fall (see “Kommersant” on July 30). In addition, according to him, investors concerned about the continued expansion of the pandemic coronavirus in the world, which, apparently, to obtaining an effective vaccine is unlikely to reverse.The weakening dollar had an impact on the gold price. According to Reuters, quotes in the spot market remain near historic highs — about $1980 per ounce. The cost of the nearest futures contract on the CME exchange on Friday reached $1981,1 per ounce, 2% higher than the previous day’s close. According to the economist for Russia and CIS “Renaissance Capital” Sophia Donets, now the demand is amplified by the fact that interest rates on the world’s leading reserve currencies dropped to near-zero levels and expected to remain ultra low for a long time. In these circumstances, more investors seeking the safest assets to invest savings, choose gold. According to experts on the stock market “BCS” Dmitry Pushkarev, the gold market now is a classic stock speed — the hype is supported by speculative-minded market participants.Despite the weakening of the dollar on the world market, the Russian currency is losing ground not only against the Euro but also the dollar. On Friday at the auction of the Moscow exchange, the Euro reached the level of 87,77 RUB/€, and in the evening went up to 88 RUB/€, the high from March 30 this yearYes. The dollar rose to 74,09 RUB/$, the high from may 14. The weakening of the ruble looks quite expected, says Sophia Donets. According to “Renaissance Capital” with the price of oil around $40 per barrel the fair value of the ruble to the dollar is about 73,5 RUB/$. The main factor is the recovery in import demand in the background of lifting the quarantine and recovery in consumer spending, while export dynamics remained weak. In addition to the restoration of pent-up demand for imports, analysts BKS allocate and converting dividend payments to foreign shareholders of the largest Russian companies. The amount of conversion of this month could reach us $4.2-5.6 billion amid reduced in July, almost twice the sales of foreign currency in terms of the budget rules it puts extra pressure on the ruble.Polina Smorodskaya
