Especially for “the Russian newspaper” A. Dadashov, Director of the Academy of management Finance and investment, given the forecast for the ruble and explained how events in the US to help the Russian currency to strengthen:
– the Federal reserve expects that the GDP of the States will fall by 6.5 percent. And the beginning of regenerative processes will occur no earlier than 2021. Moreover, the expert predicts, a difficult unemployment situation in the United States may be maintained in 2022. However, it’s hard to call unexpected: in General, they coincide with the opinion of most market participants.
Much more attention should be paid to the words of Jerome Powell to maintain economic incentives through 2022, which is expected to further decline of the dollar and keeping funding costs at an incredibly low level. In other words, after a short correction of risk tools is expected to continue bullish trend in the assets of developing countries, including on the ruble.
Since March, the real yield on 10-year treasuries (generic name debt obligations of the U.S. government) is in the negative zone and now it is about -0.4 percent. And that means investors will continue to seek protection from inflation in higher-yielding securities issued in other countries. In such as Federal loan bonds (OFZ) issued by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.
the fed has not yet decided on targeting yield, but the chances of applying such a strategy in the near future is extremely high. Especially given its successful implementation in the period 1942-1951 years. In this case, the interest of the American debt will be reduced even more.
At a recent auction the Finance Ministry sold five-year OFZ in the amount of 49.3 billion rubles at weighted average rate of 5.18 percent per annum. The total demand for the bonds exceeded 83 billion. Interest to the Russian public debt is maintained not only thanks to the high yield and credit rating of the country, but expectations of imminent key interest rate was reduced one percentage point at the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on June 19.
Thus, in the coming week we can expect increased activity of foreign investors, which will contribute to the strengthening of the ruble. Soon the market will increase the presence of domestic exporters, whose exchange operations under payment of taxes at the end of the month will also provide additional support for the course.
barring any negative surprises, the course is able to return to around 68,30 per dollar.