The program of modernization of old thermal power plant capacity of 1.3 trillion could trigger a sharp growth of prices for electric power for the population. Payments by 2031 will increase by 120%, to 192 billion rubles. per year, Vygon Consulting predicts, the final electricity prices may increase by 40 kopecks. for 1 kWh Regulators and market participants believe the experts too high, and analysts expect that the burden would be shifted from public to industry.The program of modernization of old thermal power plants by 2031 could increase the payments for electric capacity 120% of current values, up to 192 billion rubles., calculated at Vygon Consulting. The reason for the increase in payments for power upgraded power plants. Suppliers are buying power for the population on special regulated contracts (RD), the share of RD in total revenue of the power plant amounts to 35%. For the program of modernization of old thermal power plant for 2022-2031 years it is planned to modernize more than 44 GW capacity of 1.3 trillion rubles In the previous year had already passed two selection of the modernization project inputs in 2022-2025 to 208 billion RUB Total revenue for the wholesale energy market only these stations will reach 124 billion rubles by 2027. Moreover, 25 billion rubles of this amount will pay for the RD population, and 99 billion rubles.— commercial consumers, it follows from the calculations Vygon Consulting. Due to the increase of RD for the upgraded stations, the total volume of payments in the wholesale energy market will grow by an average 6.8% per year. By 2031, this will lead to the cumulative growth of payments to 60-70 billion rubles in excess of inflation, analysts warn.The additional load in the amount of 70 billion rubles will lead to higher end-prices for households by approximately 40 kopecks. for 1 kWh, considered in Vygon Consulting. Now the average tariff for population in Russia is 4.17 rubles. per 1 kWh, and for preferential categories of citizens — 3,12 RUB. per 1 kWh, according to estimates by KPMG. To moderate prices for the population controllers can also redistribute load commercial customers, increasing prices for business for 10 kopecks. for 1 kWh, according to analysts Vygon Consulting. The other option is to decrease the revenue of network companies is 6%.In “market Council” (the regulator of energy markets) confirm that the program of modernization of thermal power plants may lead to increased rates of RD.However, there do not agree with the estimates: the actual cost of the power plant according to the results of selection are significantly below forecasts, so the growth rates capacity will not be large. The regulator also against the exclusion of the objects of modernization of the RD, as this will increase the amount of RD from other suppliers and will become a new form of cross-subsidization. “In General, we believe that gradually the price of electricity for households should be close to the economically justified level, and the assistance and support should be provided through targeted direct subsidthe funding”,— emphasized in the controller. The Ministry of energy, FAS and the Ministry of economy did not answer the request to “Kommersant”.In “Council of power producers” (POC, brings together the generating company) agree that the evaluation of experts on growth RD “clearly excessive”. While there stress that the upgraded station can not be completely deprived of revenue from RD, because “there is a risk of exceeding the limits of RD to other generation facilities, which are enshrined in the rules of the market and account for 35%”. In EIT countries are also in favour of targeted assistance to needy citizens.In the “Community of energy consumers” (which includes industrial energy consumers) propose to simply abandon the program of modernization of old capacities. “Rejection of new selections and additional payments energy does not degrade the reliability of power supply and reduce the financial burden on enterprises and the tariffs for the population”,— said the Association.”The increasing complexity of calculations in the wholesale market little who benefits: consumers no forecast of energy consumption even for two or three years in advance, and the professional market participants and regulators are faced with the unexpected consequences of the familiar solutions,” says Nicholas Osipenko from Vygon Consulting. The head of the Agency energy analysis Alexey Presnov doubt that the regulators will increase the final tariffs for the population. In his opinion, the growing burden on the population in the end will again be passed on to commercial consumers, which in turn will increase the volume of cross-subsidization.Pauline Smertin
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