The Ministry of agriculture warned of a

the Logic of the Ministry of agriculture is simple: blame it on the export. Russia is ready to increase the export of pork and chicken, the largest market — China. The problems of China one coronavirus are not exhausted. Because of the epidemic of ASF (African swine fever) grunting livestock in 2018 decreased by almost half. Conclusion of the Ministry of agriculture: Russia could dramatically increase exports to China, which will lead to growth in meat prices on the domestic market.

Convincing? Not really. First question: if the ASF decimated Chinese pigs in 2018, why Russian exports raises domestic prices under threat in 2020? For him, however, is the answer, interesting in its own way. Indeed, potentially the Russian pork demand in the Chinese market, but, as stressed, for example, one of the world’s largest auditing companies, KPMG in the review “the food Market of the PRC: opportunities for Russian companies”, issued in June 2019, there is a serious obstacle in the form of restrictions of the Chinese side on the import beef and pork from Russia… “because of the outbreaks in the territory of the Russian Federation of dangerous animal diseases (African swine fever and foot and mouth disease in cattle)”.

That’s really what is called a plague on both your houses. But what, then, really stands for the alarmist warning of domestic agriculture? Caring our pockets? Certainly not in the first place. The Ministry therefore is lobbying for the interests of meat processors. They are interested in low purchase prices for the same pork, and so what will be the retail price — this is not the Ministry of agriculture.

There is another important question. According to the logic of agriculture, the export reduces the supply in the domestic market, and that’s bad. If the right Ministry? Only if you stand on vulgar narrow-minded point of view. Normal position is something samsula-running. Have a goal — to diversify Russian exports. And the first effective steps in this direction is the development of export of agricultural products. In General, the more Russia types of competitive products, and this is confirmeddischarges its efficient export, the better for the country and for citizens. Including because expanded import capabilities.

In the same review, KPMG is the task set by President Vladimir Putin to increase Russian exports of food in half — to $45 billion by 2024. Back in China with the largest demand for food. While Russia can supply China with meat only chicken: negotiations on the opening of the market took six years! And in November 2018 Russia and China have signed the protocols on mutual deliveries of poultry and dairy products. Now the first place from the point of view of Russian export potential, according to KPMG, is pork. And we must not frighten the exports to China, and to achieve the lifting of restrictions.

While prices of pork and chicken producers while 11.1 to 11.3% below the level of 2019. Another thing — beef. As warned in the Analytical center for the government, it in 2020, prices could rise by 5%. But it’s not in exports and not in China. The reason — the continuing reduction in the number of cattle in Russia.