The law of inertia

this is an objective trend or is it the vibrations caused by the human factor, and the market will soon recover? The head of the main Department for labour and employment of the Chelyabinsk region Vladislav Smirnov considers: causes in the suspension of the full activity of the enterprises, the pause in the work of their personnel services. Initial confusion broke the usual rhythm, the company lost efficiency in removing and adding jobs.

– We also rebuild, move to electronic document management, says the head of the center of employment of Chelyabinsk Elena Chibok. But jobs remain – they are on Chelyabinsk to Kopeysk and Sosnovsky area more than 10 thousand. The city is still in need of working hands.

Cautious optimism caused by observing relating to the economic crisis of 2008. Then the labour market has dropped rapidly – from 30 thousand jobs in three months economic downturn in the region were at first seven thousand, and then 5.5 thousand.

it is Unlikely we will see such – suggests Vladislav Smirnov. – At least not in the near future. Yes, while there is only a forecast, expert estimation. Based on them, we have sent proposals to the Federal center, rapidly engaged in public works.

In confirmation of this official cites figures: regional summary continued 44 enterprises part-time, most in Chelyabinsk. They are not first in this list. Veteran – “CHTZ-Uraltrac”, hitting it once, it does not operate in normal operation, regularly sends part of the team for a full week, and it is economically necessary model work. Another constant participant list – automotive factory, but here the number of employees on part-time employment is gradually reduced.

Not increased and enterprises, announced the mass layoffs. Eight of them, and only one without state participation – “Chelyabenergosbyt”. The rest are either municipal or Federal, which by law must go through the reorganization. Really can lose your job 345 people. 158 organizations prepare point reduction (a total of 946 employees). This, of course, is only those who are officially employed. Other who are not included in the statistics, may be much more.

Today, hardly anyone can guarantee that the labor market will remain stable. Observers note: large business-structures only begin to evaluate the situation. First the specifics may occur after may holidays.

In the management of labour & employment propose to look, first, to the dynamics of oil prices and, more importantly, how deep and serious the pandemic is tearing the existing production chain. According to estimates of officers, the time gap between crisis event and the labor market’s response to it may range from 1.5 to 3 months – depending on what business and industry will suffer first. If the impact are mainly retail and services, the reaction is more rapid. If the crisis grinds big business and heavy industry, the reaction slows down: first, lost jobs, and only then comes the explosive growth of unemployment, increased referrals to employment services.

– All this, on past experience, situation, for example, not only in the midst of the crisis of 2008, but affected in 2009, and the peak of this process, we generally received in March of 2010, – says Vladislav Smirnov.

If strict quarantine measures will last for a relatively short time, in his opinion, small business, individual entrepreneurs will recover fairly quickly, because the demand for their services are delayed, it will not go away. Possible adjustment in connection with change of the solvency of the population, but for many services it is impossible to refuse. The picture in key sectors may prove to be less rosy and normalized soon.

on the other hand, we must not forget: every crisis is an opportunity, including for retraining and advanced training. This vision in 2020 will be from 5 to 10 thousand unemployed South Urals.

All the materials of the story “COVID-19. We can do it!” read the .