the experts have calculated three scenarios depending on the period of the restrictive measures 4, 8 and 12 months. In these scenarios, according to experts, the revenues from the tourism sector would fall by 1.17, 2.22 and 3.3 trillion dollars respectively. The report doesn’t mention which scenario is most likely, however, the representative of UNCTAD said the Guardian, “the most realistic” can be average.
Experts point out that international tourism almost completely paralysed, and domestic tourism is restricted by the conditions of isolation imposed in many countries. Although some areas began to open, many people are afraid of international travel or can not afford it due to the economic crisis.
Also named the countries which will suffer the biggest losses for all three scenarios: this is the United States (187 billion dollars in the period for four months) and China (105 billion dollars). Loss USA at the “pessimistic” scenario could be 538 billion, or 3 percent of the national GDP. France and Thailand may lose about 47 billion dollars. Small island States such as Jamaica, will suffer the greatest losses in proportion to its economy, faced with a decline in GDP of 11 percent, or of 1.68 billion dollars.
the UN report prepared by the world tourism organization in may, indicated that the number of tourists in the world in 2020 could be reduced by 60-80 per cent compared to the previous year. Experts UNTCAD give a figure of 66 percent.