Libyan field Marshal Khalifa Haftar appealed to the people and announced that the power in the country goes to the army. This statement actually annulled Shirinskii agreement, which established a temporary peace between the supporters of the national consensus Government Faiza Caraga and the army of the Caliph Haftarot. However, such a decision was not a surprise to experts. Why did the civil war in Libya could not complete Shirinskii agreements, what will happen next and who benefits – the “MK” said associate Professor of Russian state humanitarian University, Sergei Seregichev.
– the Gap Sheratsky agreements were expected step, – says the expert. – The question was only one when it happens. But frankly, the gap agreements on the battlefield does not change anything. The Haftarot for this appeal primarily an attempt to demonstrate to their sponsors and supporters that he is on horseback, and that he intends to fight for power. Supporters of field Marshal wanted the certainty to understand whether they should risk their lives in the struggle for the Haftarot or not: because the victory of the Haftarot means a lot of posts for them. This statement is primarily aimed at their own people, is an attempt to “cement” their camp. The main problem and the Haftarot, and Caraga that they have no army, but a motley crew, and to ensure that their troops did not collapse, they need to constantly set new goals. Otherwise they just run away and start fighting among themselves. So from time to time they have to encourage such requests.
As to this statement was the reaction of the allies of the Haftarot?
– the Allies of Haftarot has invested billions of dollars in its promotion on a post of the head of Libya, and they are not willing to just back down from this. This financial losses, but more importantly, it is the loss of image. It is neither the Saudis nor the UAE, nor the Egyptians to go completely unprepared. If to speak about Russia’s position, overall we could accept the status quo, but for the rest of the allies Haftorah this position is totally unacceptable.
– In your opinion, who wins in the ongoing military conflict?
– the Main question – who longer has enough resources for the continuation of hostilities. Sarraj can not destroy the army of Haftarot, but with the help of the Turks successfully defended. To take the Libyan capital Tripoli from the Haftorah, too, will fail. First, he lacks the strength, and secondly, he opposed the Turkish military, and they greatly increased defense Caraga. Now Faiza Saraga tactic is to counterattack in the disruption of possible attacks on Tripoli, the armies of the Haftarot. Also, they are trying to destroy the supply lines of the army field Marshal, to leave his advanced units without resources. But they come into the country they can not: it will seriously stretch them to whomdialogue and make them much more vulnerable to air strikes by the Libyan national army Haftarot.
– it Turns out a stalemate. You predict that this standoff will not end in the near future?
– the Situation really is unlikely to be resolved in the coming years. Neither the West nor Russia are going to destroy Turkey for Libya. The Turks have the resources is enough to support Libya in the current balance of power. Therefore, most likely, no major changes in the country will not happen – if only nothing happens to the Haftarah, or Sarraj. The death of any of these leaders seriously change the situation. Regarding the Haftarot have been rumors from the French that he was suffering from a serious oncological disease. Hardly anyone in Moscow, Rome or Paris, seriously studying the situation with a possible receiver or Saraja the Haftarot, at least for the reason that of such figures in Libya no. Any one wishing to become a receiver that Saraga that the Haftarot has neither such experience nor such skills or such authority, and because of the death of any of these leaders is the collapse of their camp.
– Can the intervention of some major player to change this?
Yes, something like that Americans can do. For example, if suddenly the President trump (or another leader of the United States) will decide to intervene and send to the coast of Libya by the us Navy. Then one of the political will of the United States can suffice to determine the winner in the Libyan conflict. Americans can change the position of the force, but they don’t want to interfere. In principle, Russia could also, but we have a long operation in Syria. Another situation may change the way out of the conflict, such as Turkey. If the Erdogan regime for any reason fail, then left without a key ally Sarraj is unlikely to be able to resist the Haftarot. If it does not happen neither one nor the other, this conflict may last for decades, as in Somalia, Yemen and Afghanistan.
– whether it will lead to new waves of migration of refugees in the European Union?
– In fact, the EU is quite satisfied with the current situation. Under the guise of military action is very easy to block the flow of migration. It is considered that during the fighting it is just unregulated, but if you want you can always find commanders who personally shot a couple of dozen boats with migrants. Then they can accuse and call to the Hague, but to bring the field commanders from Libya virtually impossible (and not necessary). And after a few of such shares the number of people wanting to move to Europe will fall sharply.