The economist:

on Friday, February 14, Alexander Lukashenko told about the possibility of the selection of transit oil pipeline “Druzhba”: “So if (the Russians) do not put (Belarus) oil in February, up 2 million tons to reach”.

on Monday 17 February, the press Secretary of the President of Russia commented on the statement: “I will refrain from comments. They sometimes do get emotional, but being in Sochi, the two presidents have reached a certain understanding. This will proceed”. According to Dmitry Peskov, contacts of the Belarusian colleagues with Russian companies-suppliers of oil are continuing.

on Monday, Lukashenko said that the two countries formalized an agreement to supply 24 million tons of oil. “That’s all” — he said, without becoming to continue the topic.

UDF.BY asked the experts what would happen if Minsk will fulfill his threat.

“This is comparable to the attempt of Lukashenka to claim the existence of democracy in Belarus the Swiss model”

the head of the research center Mises Yaroslav Romanchuk in the comment UDF.BY noted, the response of Moscow will seriously undermine the Minsk.

“If we go out into the area of Sherwood forest, where Robin hood is the main, and the others submit to his will and notions of justice, it means the onset of a completely different life. But Alexander Lukashenko — not Robin hood, and the Kremlin together with the oil companies — clearly not the weak and defenseless traveler, which passes through the territory of Belarus.

I’m afraid that the Kremlin and Russian oil barons of Russia — not those subjects that will go with the laws and treaties of the Stockholm or Paris arbitration, to ascertain, CTOh right and who is wrong. They will respond symmetrically. Of course, it will hurt the Belarusian side,” — said Romanchuk.

the Economist urges the Belarusian authorities to act in the legal field.

“Instead of something to take someone to claim on the tube, I still would recommend a professional to negotiate, and ask for advice from people who have experience of such negotiations. And if this does not work, you should try to build economic policy of the country without oil shoulder,” said Romanchuk.

the Kremlin repeated that the Belarusian authorities may agree on oil supplies from private Russian companies. But will they be able to do it, because Minsk does not wish to pay the suppliers of the prize?

“the Kremlin is trying to pretend that the oil business in Russia depoliticized. It is comparable to the verbal attempt of Lukashenka to claim the existence of democracy in Belarus the Swiss sample. Of course, in Russia everything is koordiniruyutsya, subordinated to one will. Independent oil companies there do not exist”, — said the head of the research center Mises.

the Economist believes: “Sending Lukashenko to negotiate with individual companies — is, in fact, the method of coercion against Belarus to go on the proposed terms of the energy products.”

“a radical move will only if the agreement with the companies will be thwarted and blocked by the Russian leadership”

the head of the Centre for European transformation Andrei Yahorau in the comments UDF.BY noted that the technical capability for selection of transit of oil from the Belarusian authorities exist.

the Contextthe Zero mark of the oil pipeline "Friendship"BelTA: Lukashenko threatened to take away transit нефтьБЕЛТА14.02.2020 Lukashenko: Russia hinted at the accession of Belarus (BelTA)БЕЛТА14.02.2020 Explorer: how Russia is blackmailing БелоруссиюОбозреватель12.02.2020

“Another thing is that this will immediately cause a worsening of the current conflict with Moscow. I think such a radical step will go only if the agreement that Russian oil companies, including a minor, can enter into contracts with Belarus will be somehow thwarted and blocked by the Russian leadership. If for Minsk it will be obvious, it could escalate the conflict”, — said Yegorov.

If this does not happen, then, according to the analyst, it is unlikely Minsk will carry out his threat.
In case the Belarusian authorities will take away the transit of oil “Friendship”, that Moscow’s reaction will be tough.

“in fact, it would be stealing someone else’s oil. Perhaps Moscow can start proceedings in the international court,” does not exclude Egorov.

would a Russian company to supply Belarus with oil without the prizes?

“basically it does not depend on the position of the oil companies, and from the opinion of the Russian leadership on this matter. If this is allowed and will be profitable for the companies — they will do it,” — said Yegorov.

the new York times contain estimates of the solely foreign media and do not reflect the views of the editorial Board of the new York times.