In the Russian financial circles had a new idea: to redenominate domestic Bank notes. The proposal was voiced by the economist and analyst, head of IAC “Alpari” Alexander Razuvaev. The reason for the proposal was recorded by the Central Bank sharp increase in cash in the country. According to the latest data, the amount exceeds 12 trillion – that is, on each Russian, including babies, accounts for more than 80 thousand rubles in cash.
Recall that the previous denomination was held in January 1998, then the coefficient was 1к1000. Now analysts are suggesting a more modest scale: 1 to 100. Note that the Central Bank does while this idea is not officially responded. But some analysts colleagues Razuvaev has already subjected it to criticism. So the chief economist of alpha Bank Natalia Orlova has declared inexpediency of such measures, as it will lead to increased tension in society in conditions when the country’s economy suffered from the impact of the pandemic. A leading analyst “Finam” Alexey Korenev considers that the number of zeros in the Russian ruble is still not as great as it was in 1997, so the obvious haste with their “strikethrough” while simply no.
However, asking to justify the idea of a denomination “MK” asked to the author – analyst Alexander RAZUVAEV.
Why did You come to the conclusion that there is momentum for the denomination of the ruble?
– In favor of the denomination tells macroeconomics. Inflation is now low – 3%, international reserves of the Bank of Russia exceed $550 billion, almost twice the annual budget of the country. If we consider GDP at purchasing power parity, Russia is already the first economy in Europe and fifth in the world. The ratio of denominations of one to one hundred is obvious. In this case, a bottle of water will cost 30-70 cents, subway fare is 50 cents, and the apartment will no longer be worth millions. Dinner in the Moscow fashionable restaurant for two persons – 100-150 rubles. And the dollar will give 60-70 cents.
do You have some Parallels with the previous denomination that was held in Russia in 1998?
– the situation 1997-1998 nothing in common. Then the inflation rate was 11-12%, a huge budget deficit and dependence on borrowing in the GKO market and IMF loans. Salaries in the public sector and pensions were not paid for six months. The size of the economy were much less than now. A very narrow domestic market. And, of course, inflated through the trading band of the ruble. It quickly ended in August 1998 default, devaluation, the stock market fell almost to zero.
– If the denomination is now – what are its benefits for the country and for the population?
– the Calculations will be easier. Will respect to the ruble and the kopek, coins will not be squeamish to leave at the checkout. It is time to introduce in the country and the policy of the strong ruble. A stable currency is the confidence of Russians in the future, the prestige at least neighbors on the Eurasian economic Union is, in fact, the original trigger of the success of integration processes with neighbors. Market reforms in Russia for almost 30 years. This is the final point. The ruble changed to any currency, low inflation, the shelves full of goods. This is the complete opposite of 1991.
– Evaluate whether You are the possible costs of such an exercise: what it will cost the budget and the economy?
– the Cost will be for the account of the Bank of Russia as the emission center, but not at the expense of the budget. In the modern bourgeois Russia, the cost of manufacturing banknotes ranges from 60 cents to 1.5–2 rubles apiece. The new money probably will be slightly higher as they will be better protected.
